Dan Patrick, the Republican lieutenant governor, says his party is “going to have a tough time” holding onto its majority in the Texas House this fall.
Dustin Burrows, the Republican speaker of the House, says not to worry. “We will not lose the Texas House. We will fight to retain every Republican seat,” he said.
Texas State Representative Angie Chen Button speaks during the US-China Chamber of Commerce in DFW Lunar New Year event in Frisco at the Hyatt Regency Frisco,TX February 1,2025. (Nathan Hunsinger/Special Contributor)
The dueling predictions played out in separate appearances last week in Austin, a rare intraparty split given that GOP leaders often boast about their long hold on Texas politics.
Patrick, at a Texas Public Policy Foundation gathering, also said the vanquished candidate in the Senate runoff next month between Republican incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton should “get over it and come together as one.”
Without that unity, he said, disgruntled GOP voters may stay home in November, giving Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico a path to victory.
Patrick is trading hubris for proactivity to protect against Republicans being caught napping.
He knows the political climate for the midterms favors Democrats, many looking to take it out on President Donald Trump.
Nationally, history shows the party that controls the White House faces headwinds in midterm elections. Trump, though popular with much of his base, has low approval ratings, polls show.
That combination of history and GOP apathy “could create a perfect storm” for Democrats, said Mark Jones, a Rice political scientist and pollster who studies Texas legislative politics.
“What Patrick is trying to highlight is that Republicans have no reason to believe they are going to have as easy a time as they did in 2024,” Jones said.
Texas Republicans have had firm control of the 150-member House since winning it in 2002, the first time since Reconstruction.
Their biggest scare was in 2008, when Barack Obama’s presidential campaign sparked a wave that pushed Democrats within two seats of retaking that chamber.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (right) speaks to reporters alongside House Speaker Dustin Burrows, R-Lubbock, outside a joint hearing of the Texas Senate and House Select Committees on disaster preparedness and flooding, Thursday, July 31, 2025, in Kerrville, Texas. (Elías Valverde II/Staff Photographer)
Republicans routed them in 2010, flipping 22 seats as the conservative-leaning tea party movement took hold.
In 2018, the year of Trump’s first midterm, Democrats flipped 12 House seats, including 10 in North Texas.
The current partisan breakdown in the House is 88 Republicans and 62 Democrats.
It’s unlikely that Republicans will lose the Texas House or the solidly GOP state Senate, but there could be some carnage. That’s what Patrick is hoping to guard against.
He pointed to the special election in Tarrant County, where Democrat Taylor Rehmet flipped a GOP-held Senate seat in a district Trump carried by 17 points.
Democrats say the result reflects stronger enthusiasm on their side.
Patrick noted that tens of thousands of Republicans who usually turn out did not vote.
“This is real,” he said.
House races to watch
No matter how gerrymandered Texas’ legislative districts are in favor of Republicans, a few GOP House candidates remain at risk in urban and suburban areas.
In Dallas County, Republican incumbent Angie Chen Button of Garland has held her seat despite being targeted by Democrats in the last several election cycles.
Button’s district, in the northeast area of Dallas County, is a diverse hub that attracts some newcomers and businesses.
Republicans fortified her District 11 in 2021, but a crush of Democratic voters would make things interesting. She faces Marine veteran and Richardson lawyer Zach Herbert in November.
Republican Morgan Meyer of University Park also is a frequent target of Democrats.
Democrats are hoping a bad year for national Republicans trickles down to the Park Cities. Allison Mitchell, a children’s book author and businesswoman, is the Democratic nominee for District 108.
Button and Meyer are the only two Republicans from Dallas County left in the state House.