The first round of the NBA Playoffs is about to be upon us, and there are plenty of interesting series to watch across the board. However, the Houston Rockets facing off against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference’s four-five matchup has been one of the most talked about heading in.
Anything that involves the Lakers will get a lot of attention, but the Rockets are still a storied franchise in the NBA that are now back in the postseason mix after making the playoffs now back-to-back seasons under coach Ime Udoka. The Rockets have been featured and discussed quite a bit on national TV, and it’s because superstar forward Kevin Durant is leading the team.
Durant joining the Rockets this offseason in the biggest trade in NBA history was going to put a significant amount of eyes on Houston. The expectation was to be a title contender, but the season-ending injuries of starting point guard Fred VanVleet and back-up center Steven Adams make that a challenging task ahead.
It caused some growing pains for the Rockets during the year, especially on offense. Durant played a huge role in offsetting some of those losses with his MVP performance level. He is the team’s primary scorer and is the main reason why the Rockets matched their regular season win total from last season at 52-30 and made the playoffs, let alone as the fifth seed.
The Rockets are now rewarded with a first round series against LeBron James and the Lakers. This was honestly the most favorable matchup Houston could have as a lower seed given the fact that it matches up better against LA, but more so the injury issues tilt the scales in the favor of the Rockets at the moment.
Rockets-Lakers Series Prediction
Mar 16, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) dribbles the ball as Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) defends during the first quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
The Lakers are expected to be without the NBA’s leading scorer in Luka Doncic, as well as his back court partner in Austin Reaves. Lakers coach JJ Redick said this week they are both out indefinitely, but more reporting came out saying they are unlikely to play in the first round. If the Lakers move on, that gives them an opportunity, but they have to get past the Rockets first.
The Lakers won the regular season series 2-1, but the main reason for that was Doncic. He put up 36 in the first matchup back in March and followed that up with 40 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists two days later as the Lake Show won back-to-back in Houston. The Lakers have deployed a deep use of their bench lately and still found a way to earn home court advantage with a 52-29 record thanks to some key wins late in the regular season.
The Rockets know what kind of basketball to play and have much more experience in their rotation than the Lakers, who still have to figure out their bench for the playoffs thanks to the injuries. The Lakers have not been very consistent and will need help from veterans like Maxi Kleber and Jared Vanderbilt. Besides that, Dalton Knecht and Bronny James will also play a role. It’s hard to know what to expect out of that group.
Luke Kennard has been the primary guard replacement, while Rui Hachimura gets in the starting lineup. James will have to play significantly well with no true star player besides him and that is a lot to ask of a 41-year-old, even if it’s King James.
The Rockets have won nine out of their last 10 entering the playoffs, and played much better during the late stretch of the regular season. The main reason for that is Durant is getting the help he needs. Reed Sheppard has moved to the starting lineup which greatly increased the offensive efficiency, looks and ball movement while All-Star center Alperen Sengun looks more aggressive and effective overall.
Jabari Smith Jr. has also been playing at a high level knocking down shots while Amen Thompson has been lethal all around the court. Besides that, the bench with Tari Eason, Aaron Holiday, Jae’Sean Tate, Clint Capela and Josh Okogie have all stepped up when needed. The Rockets’ bench unit has experience in their respective roles. With all that being said, here’s the series prediction.
Prediction: Rockets in Five Games Over the Lakers
The Rockets have been one of the better defensive teams in the league, and I expect the Lakers to deal with challenges offensively against them. Houston’s rebounding is also significantly better, and that is a huge reason that tilts the scales. The Rockets have many playmakers, and while inconsistent, the Lakers just don’t have enough firepower to compete at the moment.
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