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The model fair value for Texas Roadhouse sits at US$196.84, essentially in line with the prior US$196.85 level. This signals only a very small adjustment to the price target in recent research. Around that stable anchor, analysts are split, with some pointing to strong Q1 to date same store sales and menu pricing actions, while others focus on tighter margin assumptions and more limited upside after Q4. As you read on, you will see how these moving pieces shape the evolving Texas Roadhouse narrative and what it could mean for your own view.
Truist highlights very strong Q1 to date same store sales and views Texas Roadhouse as well positioned, even after a weather related Q4 miss, and points to an April menu price increase as support for margins.
Barclays, despite a Q4 shortfall on key metrics and outsized beef inflation, flags a re acceleration in Q1 comparable sales and maintains an Equal Weight rating with a slightly higher price target of US$188, up from US$185.
Stephens raises its price target to US$180 from US$168 and indicates it would be more constructive on the shares on a pullback, tying its view to potential relief in beef costs.
BofA, with a Buy rating and a trimmed FY26 EPS estimate of US$6.27, still sets a higher price target of US$216, framing cost pressures as manageable within a more conservative margin model.
BofA cuts its FY26 EPS estimate from US$6.80 to US$6.27, citing higher structural costs across cost of goods sold, labor, and other operating expenses, which feeds into a lower price target of US$216.
Citi and Truist both lower price targets, to US$184 and US$186 respectively, with Citi seeing only modest upside after Q4 and Truist downgrading the stock earlier in February on concerns around persisting beef price inflation.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
NasdaqGS:TXRH 1-Year Stock Price Chart
We’ve flagged 2 risks for Texas Roadhouse. See which could impact your investment.
On February 18, 2026, Texas Roadhouse’s Board of Directors approved a quarterly cash dividend of US$0.75 per share, payable on March 31, 2026, to shareholders of record as of March 17, 2026.
From October 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, the company repurchased 295,678 shares, about 0.45% of its shares, for US$50.02 million under its existing buyback program.
Under the buyback announced on February 20, 2025, Texas Roadhouse has completed the repurchase of 702,201 shares in total, about 1.06% of its shares, for US$120.03 million.
Story Continues
Fair value in the model is US$196.84, compared with US$196.85 previously.
Revenue growth assumption is 9.62%, compared with 9.25% previously.
Net profit margin assumption is 7.74%, compared with 7.90% previously.
Future P/E multiple in the model is 26.93x, compared with 27.11x previously.
Discount rate in the model is 8.60%, compared with 8.40% previously.
Narratives connect Texas Roadhouse’s business story to a set of financial assumptions and a model fair value, then refresh as new data and research come through. They give you a structured way to track how catalysts and risks are evolving over time.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Texas Roadhouse to stay up to date on:
How the expansion of Bubba’s 33 and Jaggers, alongside new openings, relates to expected unit growth and potential future revenue.
What improving digital tools, such as the mobile app, to go and waitlist features, and digital kitchen technology, could mean for efficiency and guest experience.
How risks like beef and wage inflation, falling alcohol mix, slower digital adoption, and a focus on in person dining could affect margins and long term competitiveness.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include TXRH.
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