LUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) – Rain will spread across most of the KCBD/FOX34 viewing area overnight. With rain likely Friday, and temperatures dropping even more, the stage is set for a wet and quite chilly day. It is much-needed moisture for the South Plains, West Texas, and eastern New Mexico.
After the rain clears out Friday, we’ll settle into a cooler weekend before warming back up early next week.
A Tale of Two Models
Rain totals are likely to vary considerably across the viewing area. While a widespread rain remains likely, some spots may receive less than a tenth of an inch while others more than an inch. Below are two possibilities, for the same area and the same time frame. Note the varied amounts indicated for the same areas. Somewhere between the two is what most spots are likely to receive.
The HRRR, or High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, model is the driest for the area.(KCBD First Alert)
Tonight through midday Friday is the prime time for rain across our area. An upper-level system moving in from the southwest will keep rain chances high during that time. Most areas should see some rain, with the heaviest amounts likely over the southern South Plains where some spots may pick up around an inch or more.
The GFS, or American, model is the most bullish on rain totals.(KCBD First Alert)
While the rain is not expected to be heavy enough to cause widespread problems, a few isolated areas may see some localized heavier rainfall. Watch for the potential for flooding of low areas, including intersections.
Tonight will be chillier than last night with lows around 12 to 14 degrees below average for the end of April.
A very chilly start to Friday.(KCBD First Alert)
A cold rain is likely Friday morning into early afternoon. The showers are expected to taper off from west to east late in the day with a few showers lingering into the evening, mainly over the southeastern viewing area.
This is beneficial rainfall for the region after a dry April. As of this post, Lubbock’s total precipitation for April is just 0.16 inch.
The chance of rain is very high late Thursday night through Friday morning.(KCBD First Alert)
Friday will be noticeably cooler with a chilly – some will find it a cold – breeze as that rain continues into the afternoon. Highs will be 15 or more degrees below May 1 averages. Most of us will want at least a jacket before heading out. The rain should clear out from west to east by Friday evening as the upper system moves away.
A little reminder. The chance of rain does not directly correlate to the amount of rain. There may be a 100% chance of rain, but only a few hundredths measured. On the other hand, the chance may be 20%, but one, two, even three inches is measured at some spots. The former is more likely during a widespread gentle rain while the later more often associated with thunderstorms.
Saturday will be dry and cool, but pleasant enough for outdoor plans. A light wind is expected, so it should be a good day to catch up on yard work or outdoor activities.
A very chilly Friday will be followed by a warming trend.(KCBD First Alert)
Then comes the warm-up. Sunday and Monday will be dry with temperatures climbing back into the 70s on Sunday and 80s on Monday. A west to southwest breeze will pick up each afternoon.
The next chance of rain doesn’t show up until late next week. It’s pretty iffy looking at the moment. We’ll be watching developments next week.
For now, get ready for tonight’s rain and enjoy the cooler Friday. It’s a nice reminder that spring weather in the South Plains can change quickly. You can follow the forecast and track tonight and tomorrow’s rain using the Interactive Radar in our KCBD weather app. It is free in your app/play store. Simply search for “kcbd weather”.
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