The survey of 1,200 likely voters found Paxton had a 3-percentage-point advantage in the GOP runoff, with 7% of voters still undecided. The poll was conducted last week and had a 2.8% margin of error.
The race between Cornyn and Paxton, two veteran Texas figures, has turned into one of the nation’s most closely watched races this primary season. The winner will go on to face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in November. The runoff is May 26.
Cornyn’s campaign and the outside groups supporting him have greatly outspent Paxton’s camp, spending more than $100 million on advertising in the runup to the primary March 3. Yet Paxton has either kept pace or shown a slight lead in polling, building off his significant support among MAGA Republicans.
Pollsters for the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found that people who voted in the primary for U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, an ardent Trump booster who did not make the runoff, favored Paxton by 17 points over Cornyn.