Heat at Spurs odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Heat (3-1) face the San Antonio Spurs (4-0) Thursday with tip-off from Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas, set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Spurs odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

2024-25 season series: Heat won 2-0

The Heat stayed hot Tuesday night, winning their third straight with a dominant 144-117 victory over the Charlotte Hornets. Miami easily covered as 4.5-point home favorites as the Over (239.5) hit comfortably. F Jaime Jaquez Jr. came off the bench to lead all scorers with 28 points, adding 5 assists and 4 rebounds, while C Bam Adebayo chipped in 26 points and 6 boards in the win.

The Spurs stayed perfect Monday night, cruising past the Toronto Raptors 121-103, covering as 4.5-point home favorites as the Under (232.5) hit. The Spurs dominated the glass 44-20, led by F Victor Wembanyama’s 24 points, 15 rebounds, and 4 assists. G Stephon Castle added 22 points in the convincing win.

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Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:13 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Spurs -235 (bet $235 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Heat +5.5 (-105) | Spurs -5.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 228.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Heat at Spurs key injuries

Heat

G Kasparas Jakucionis (groin) outG Norman Powell (groin) doubtful

Spurs

G De’Aaron Fox (hamstring) outC Luke Kornet (ankle) outC Kelly Olynyk (heel) outF Jeremy Sochan (wrist) outG Lindy Waters III (eye) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Spurs picks and predictionsPrediction

Spurs 117, Heat 115

PASS.

I could see the Heat (+190) winning this game outright, but I’m going to take the safer bet on the spread.

BET HEAT +5.5 (-105).

I really like the value on the Heat getting +5.5 against the Spurs Thursday night. Yes, San Antonio’s undefeated start and Wembanyama’s dominance make them the headline, but this Miami team has quietly been just as impressive — and far more battle-tested. The Heat have won 3 straight and covered in 4 of their last 5 against the Spurs, including 5 consecutive outright victories.

Miami’s balanced scoring and depth off the bench give them a legitimate edge, especially with Jaquez and Adebayo both playing at a high level. The Spurs, meanwhile, could be stretched thin with Fox and Sochan both sidelined.

Even with the Spurs at home, Miami’s defense matches up well against their young guards — and if they can force the tempo and control the glass, this one should stay tight. San Antonio’s rookie backcourt still has efficiency issues, and the Heat are the type of team that capitalizes on mistakes.

I’m not calling for the upset outright (though it wouldn’t shock me), but +5.5 feels like too much cushion for a disciplined, confident Heat team that’s finding its rhythm early in the season. Take Miami and the points.

PASS.

I’m steering clear of the total in this matchup — it’s just too tough to read. My first instinct leans Under since both teams rank among the NBA’s best defensively: San Antonio allows just 104.5 points per game (first), while Miami gives up 115.3 (10th). But the trends are split — Miami’s gone Over in 4 of 5, San Antonio Under in 3 of 4. With the Spurs short-handed offensively, this total feels unpredictable, so I’m staying away.

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Heat at Spurs odds, picks and predictions

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