More Republicans voted early in May runoff than Democrats

TEXAS — The last day of early voting is officially underway across Texas, and one Texas county just hit a record this year for the number of registered voters.

Based on county data, 2,739,719 Texans are registered to vote in Harris County. That’s 28,287 more voters registered this year compared to last year, and it’s the highest number of registered voters since the county started keeping records dating back to 2012. 

Across the Lone Star State, over 18 million Texans are registered to vote, according to data. But 18 million definitely have not shown up this week based on unofficial early voting numbers as of Thursday night when polls closed at 7 p.m.

“What we’re seeing is relatively low levels of engagement thus far, which is what we would predict,” said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “That is, typically voter turnout in a primary runoff is relatively low. And in the first couple days of voting, we’ve only seen about 2% of the statewide electorate vote in the Republican runoff, about 1% of the statewide electorate vote in the Democratic runoff. So, of course, there’s more early voting to go, and then there’s actually Election Day. But I think it points to these runoffs ultimately being decided by a relatively small fraction of the overall Texas electorate.”

During the March primary, Democrats came out in full force to vote for their candidates. But based on the data, it’s clear Republicans came out in full force this week.

On Tuesday, President Donald Trump finally weighed in on the hotly contested U.S. Senate Republican primary runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The president endorsed Paxton.

Wilson said the impact of that endorsement is up in the air.

“It could potentially fire up Paxton supporters. On the other hand, it could also potentially discourage Cornyn supporters if they think that, oh, well, now with Trump’s endorsement, Paxton has this in the bag,” Wilson said. “It might have a negative effect on turnout in the sense of dispiriting some people who might have been inclined to vote for John Cornyn. But it is so late in the game. I think by this point, most people had kind of decided what they were going to do. And so, I don’t think it’s going to have a huge effect, but there is some potential for depressing turnout among Cornyn supporters.”

Early voting ends Friday, May 22 at 7 p.m. If you can’t vote today, Election Day is on Tuesday, May 26.