Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for CFB Week 10’s game between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Houston Cougars.

TDECU will crackle at noon, a black-clad crowd buzzing for a ranked November push. Houston rolls in with momentum and ritual, honoring program lifeblood while chasing Big 12 leverage. West Virginia arrives bruised by five straight losses, a young roster still learning Rich Rodriguez’s tempo and timing. The last trip here ended on a Hail Mary; that echo still stirs pulses and posture. Today’s air feels different, though—measured, disciplined, and tilted by Houston’s balance and poise. Willie Fritz’s second-year build feels ahead of schedule, and the noon window magnifies every first-quarter breath. Across the way, Rodriguez’s reset seeks traction, discipline, and a spark that travels. Below is my prediction for CFB Week 10’s Saturday night football game between the Houston Cougars and the West Virginia Mountaineers.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Conner Weigman, quarterback, steadies everything with efficient menace. He owns 12 touchdowns against two interceptions and just logged 201 yards on 77.3% with 111 rushing yards in Tempe. That dual stress forces honest fits and squeezes coverage complexity. Tanner Koziol, tight end, keeps chains purring with 43 catches, the most among FBS tight ends, and he punctures space with angle mastery and body control. Houston’s red-zone precision sings at 92.6%, with 17 touchdowns, and Ethan Sanchez’s 16-for-19 leg closes drives that stall. That profile travels, but it also throttles at home, where rhythm and field position compound.

The complementary piece hums even louder. Houston’s defense allows 18.6 points per game and compresses opponents with steady, repeatable pressure. Carlos Allen Jr., defensive lineman, has stacked 52 tackles—third-most by any FBS defensive lineman—and erases creases before they breathe. Eddie Walls III, defensive end, headlines the rush with 5.5 sacks, sharpening edges on passing downs. Linebacker Jalen Garner’s 53 tackles knit the second level, where pursuit angles and leverage become habit rather than hope. Add six interceptions and 21 sacks, and you get a unit that turns game scripts into chalk.

West Virginia counters with belief and a freshman spark. Scotty Fox Jr., quarterback, just set the program’s true-freshman single-game passing mark with 301 yards and two touchdowns. Cam Vaughn, wide receiver, remains the reliable target, and the staff clearly trusts the kid to rip timing throws when the run game stalls. The broader math still bites: the offense sits at 20.5 points per game, with 176.5 passing yards and 176.1 rushing yards on average. The defense has leaked 29.9 points per game and 407.3 yards, with 247.1 through the air. Those splits demand perfection on money downs, and that hasn’t materialized on the road.

Zoom into situational texture, and the tilt sharpens. West Virginia has posted 1.8 first-quarter points per game and 6.4 in first halves, a cadence that cedes control before adjustments land. Houston flips the middle eight with ruthless calm, ranking first nationally at 0.8 third-quarter opponent points per game. That swing creates short fields and squeezes tempo, where Koziol’s option routes and Dean Connors’ patient tracks bite. When a favorite plays clean and wins the middle eight, margins widen in small, relentless increments.

Houston vs. WVU pick, best bet

West Virginia just pushed TCU 23-17 and held the run to 2.9 yards per carry while Fox found rhythm. If the Mountaineers reclaim a downhill identity and keep early downs on schedule, they can shorten the afternoon and ask Houston to play left-handed. If Zac Alley times pressure and muddles Weigman’s first reads, you can steal a possession and a field goal. Those are real avenues.

The Cougars protect the ball—just three interceptions all season—and finish drives with touchdowns or Sanchez’s trustworthy right foot. They just handled a ranked road trip with a 7-for-15 third-down clip and a 1-0 turnover edge. West Virginia, meanwhile, has lived in third-and-long because first-down runs stall, and that invites Houston’s rush and simulated pressures. The Mountaineers’ pass defense has allowed 247.1 yards per game, and Koziol’s volume funnels precisely where that softens: seams, digs, and option-breaks at eight to twelve yards.

Lay the points with Houston -13.5. The Cougars’ blend of 92.6% red-zone finishing, six interceptions, 21 sacks, and an 18.6 points-allowed baseline supports a two-score cushion. West Virginia’s 1.8 first-quarter points and 6.4 first-half points make script-drift likely before halftime. Houston’s six–two ATS mark reflects execution, not luck, and their recent ranked road win hardened edges you want in November chalk.

Final: Houston 31, West Virginia 13.

Best bet: Houston -13.5 (-105) vs. West Virginia

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