ARLINGTON, Texas — Earlier this month, a report came out from a non-partisan think tank, Texas 2036, revealing that Texas saw the largest decline in public school student enrollment in nearly four decades outside of the pandemic.

Recently, Arlington Independent School District addressed what lower enrollment numbers will mean for its schools. It’s a conversation many districts across Texas are now having to weigh.

“We’re at an inflection point,” said David Wilbanks, an Arlington ISD board member. “We can either do nothing, play defense, play offense or do both, and I think we need a plan to do both.”  

While Arlington ISD talked about plans for the future, Blanton Elementary prepared to step into the past. In January, trustees voted to close Blanton at the end of the school year, partially due to its student population declining and lower academic ratings. But moving forward, it is likely not the last Arlington ISD school that will see a decline in students.

“It’s going to be incumbent on us to think differently about options at Arlington ISD moving forward and this report is a foundation for us to do that,” said Superintendent Dr. Matt Smith.

The report Smith is talking about is a demography report, which was presented by Kris Pool.

“We have this bit of decline and certainly a statewide sort of decline,” said Pool. “It’s very very new that part is very new and the decline in the central cities is new-er, and I think people are trying to figure out how to handle it.”

Pool’s report anticipates the district could drop from more than 51,000 students to 43,700 in the next decade, with some of that due to declining birth rates.

“It’s not just an Arlington ISD thing,” said Pool. “It is occurring really throughout the country and a lot of the developed world.”

Up the road in Grapevine-Colleyville, two elementary schools closed at the end of the school year also partially because of a drop in enrollment.

Fewer students is something Texas 2036 found is happening across the state. Their report shows Texas public schools lost 76,000 students this school year. That’s the largest drop in nearly four decades, outside of the pandemic.

“That tells us there’s been a structural change in public education,” said Mary Lynn Pruneda, the director of education and workforce policy for Texas 2036.

Four out of five of those missing students are Hispanic, and 60% of all enrollment loss was in kindergarten through fifth grade.

The only districts that seem to be doing better are rural, which saw growth by about 13%, while urban districts dropped by more than 17%.

“When you leave one setting and you go to another setting what’s drawing you towards that,” said Pruneda. “Is it quality of life? Is it affordability? Is it the quality of the public school? There’s a lot more work to be done there.”

By 2030, the Texas 2036 report estimates Texas could see 100,000 less students.

“If we have a lot of parents in this state that are getting together and they’re saying ‘Hey the public school environment is not the best option or opportunity for my kid anymore’ then we need to do some work in our public schools,” said Pruneda. 

That’s exactly what Arlington ISD hopes their discussion can start now.

“This projection could fluctuate based on what other school districts around us do, what other things in the state happen but also what we at Arlington ISD does as well,” said Smith.