BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – Texas Republicans sent a shockwave through the political world Tuesday night, ousting four-term U.S. Senator John Cornyn in favor of Trump-backed Attorney General Ken Paxton. It marks the first time a sitting Texas senator has been defeated by a member of his own party since 1970 — and sets up what could be one of the most closely watched Senate races in the country.
Texas A&M political science professor Kirby Goidel broke down what the results mean for the GOP, the upcoming general election, and the enduring power of Donald Trump’s political brand.
According to Goidel, Cornyn’s defeat may have been inevitable.
“I don’t think there was anything he could do,” Goidel said. “John Cornyn is an establishment, institutional Republican. The one thing he could have done early on, if you remember, Trump was thinking about endorsing him during the first round of primaries. Trump backed off of it when MAGA influencers all said, ‘don’t do it. Paxton’s our guy.’ That’s the one thing that might have changed this. He might have been able to win in that first round. Once it went to the runoff, he’s an incumbent. Being in a runoff is a bad thing if you’re an incumbent, almost always.”
Goidel noted that Cornyn’s political identity — shaped across the Bush era, the Tea Party movement, and now the MAGA era — ultimately worked against him in a partisan primary environment.
“It’s not really that ideological because Cornyn’s a reliable conservative politician,” Goidel said. “What it really is about is style, right? Cornyn’s an establishment Republican. He’s the number two senator in the country, really influential, very important to Washington. But he’s not a fighter. He’s not aggressive. He’s not partisan. And so that is both his strength and his weakness. It’s a weakness in a partisan primary. It’s a strength in a general election.”
Cornyn’s loss sets up a general election matchup between Paxton and Democratic candidate James Talarico — a race Goidel says is the best opportunity Texas Democrats have seen in a generation.
“This is a dream for the Democratic Party, right? And it doesn’t mean they’re going to win. So don’t take that too far,” Goidel said. “But this is the best hand. They haven’t won a statewide race in over three decades. This is the best hand if we’re playing poker that they’ve been dealt in those three decades. You have a scandal-plagued nominee on the Republican side. You have an unpopular president with declining approval ratings. You have a struggling economy. You have a midterm election. Everything is in their favor that way. But this is still a Republican-leaning state. So Democrats are competitive, but it’s hard to see if they get over the hump.”
One of the night’s most striking storylines was the continued strength of Trump-backed candidates — even as the president’s approval ratings have declined nationally. Goidel said Trump’s influence over the Republican Party is unlike anything he has seen in his lifetime.
“Trump has done something that there is no other party boss that I can think of in any time in my lifetime who has been effective at this. He controls the Republican Party,” Goidel said. “Some of his nominees have done very poorly in the general election. Some of the people he’s backed. But if he comes at you in a Republican primary, he tends to win.”
Goidel added that while Trump’s endorsement of Paxton may not have been the decisive factor, it helped boost his margin of victory — even as fellow senators lobbied the former president to back Cornyn.
“Not only that, but also going after people like a John Cornyn, who a lot of other senators were saying, ‘President Trump, you’ve got to support Cornyn. He’s one of our guys. He’s helpful to the team.’ And Trump backed off of it and then ultimately endorsed Paxton. In this case, I don’t think he was decisive. But I think when you look at that, he helped bump up that margin for Paxton.”
Tuesday’s results also saw Congressman Chip Roy — known as a firebrand conservative — lose his Republican primary to Mayes Middleton, who fully embraced Trump’s brand throughout the campaign.
“Roy has been sort of a firebrand Republican. He’s been one of these fighters that you can look at. He’s made noise,” Goidel said. “But MAGA Mayes Middleton completely embraced Donald Trump. He didn’t get the endorsement, but he completely embraced him. Everything in his ads was about Chip Roy saying negative things about Donald Trump. And this is really another statement about just Trump’s hold over the political party.”
The bottom line from Goidel on the night’s results: “In Republican primaries, Trump wins.”
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