While BYU was off for the weekend, multiple top 10 teams suffered losses and a WVU upset over Houston setup BYU’s path to the Big 12 title game. BYU now faces its stiffest test of the season this weekend on the road at Texas Tech. The Cougars and the Red Raiders will be featured on College GameDay in a game that will shape the conference title race.

FPI gives BYU a 39.1% chance to beat the Red Raiders in Lubbock.

After BYU’s week off, FPI updated its projected win total for BYU and it updated BYU’s conference title odds. There is beginning to be some separation in the Big 12 standings and the FPI projections reflect that.

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.7-1.3. After Cincinnati’s blowout loss to Utah, FPI increased its projected win total for BYU. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game except Texas Tech per FPI.

For the purposes of this article, we’ll define a “special season” as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well (although let’s be real – the committee isn’t letting in a two-loss Big 12 team that isn’t a conference champion). FPI now gives BYU a 90.9% chance to win 10 games or more – up from 88.9% last week – and a 16.3% chance to go undefeated.

9 wins or more – 99.0%
10 wins or more – 90.9%
11 wins or more – 58.9%
12 wins (undefeated) – 16.3%

The game at Texas Tech is critical for BYU. A win over the Red Raiders would increase BYU’s chances to win 11 or more games to 85.7%. 11 regular season wins would very likely get BYU in the championship game and even the playoff.

BYU jumped up two spots in the FPI rankings during the bye week. Utah has maintained the top spot in the FPI rankings after blowing out Cincinnati (hint: algorithms like FPI love blowout wins). Texas Tech climbed to no. 11 with a win over Kansas State.

BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams in the top 25 of FPI and all three are in the top 15.

In terms of conference title hopes, Texas Tech is now the front-runner according to FPI. However, the Cougars are right behind the Red Raiders. The winner of BYU-Texas Tech will take a commanding lead in the conference title race. There are only six teams remaining with at least a 1% chance to win the Big 12 title. BYU has to play three of them over the next three weeks. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

FPI believes there is an 81.1% chance that either BYU or Texas Tech will win the league.

BYU has a 74.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI – that is up from 69.4% last week (thanks to all those upsets over the weekend). That’s the best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

If the Big 12 is going to get two teams into the field, FPI believes it would most likely be BYU and Texas Tech.