The National Weather Service has placed a level 2 risk, or at least a 15% chance, of flooding rainfall on the Austin area Friday. Forecasts call for pockets of heavy rainfall totaling 1 to 2 inches, which could lead to localized flooding because of already saturated soils.
Pivotal
Central Texas will trade excessive heat for more showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday, including the potential for heavy rainfall. Then, temperatures surge right back into the mid-90s with triple-digit heat index values, or humidity-driven “feels like” temperatures, by Sunday.
Mother Nature has been putting Texas through a weather obstacle course this week, serving up flooding rains, dangerous heat, and even the season’s first tropical storm. Just when it seemed like weather couldn’t make up its mind, another dramatic forecast shift is on the way.
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Juneteenth forecast
A weak frontal boundary, which is basically the edge of a cooler air mass, will slowly move into Central Texas on Friday morning and then stall across the region, triggering several rounds of rain and thunderstorms through Saturday.
A frontal boundary will stall across Central Texas on Friday and then eventually lift north on Saturday. This will be the focal point where several heavy rain showers and thunderstorms will develop each day.
Weather Prediction Center
A few showers might develop across the Hill Country, but most of the region should remain dry through the morning. Austin will wake up to muggy weather, overcast skies and temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which would be several degrees warmer than the typical mid-June daily low of 73 degrees. Southeast winds will also be a bit breezy, with gusts of up to 20 mph.
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If you have the day off for the Juneteenth holiday and want to take advantage of the rain-free weather, you’re in luck. Most of the rain and thunderstorm activity is expected to hold off until the early afternoon, providing a window for outdoor plans before wetter weather returns in the afternoon.
Rain and thunderstorms will begin to develop across Central Texas during the hottest part of the day on Friday. This is what the weather radar could look like at 2 p.m., according to the latest high-resolution forecast model.
Pivotal
While widespread heavy rainfall is not expected, pockets of moderate to heavy showers are possible. The flood forecasters at the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center have placed Austin under a level 2 risk, or at least a 15% chance, of flooding rainfall on Friday and rain totals could top an inch to 2 inches by Saturday night.
After battling oppressive heat, Central Texas is turning its attention back to rain this weekend.
Much like earlier this week, periods of heavy rainfall could develop Friday night into Saturday, bringing the potential for localized flash flooding in some areas. #txwx pic.twitter.com/F9dmbJKci7
— Mary Wasson (@Mary_Wasson) June 18, 2026
Saturday forecast
The weak frontal boundary will lift north as a warm front on Saturday, and southeast winds will continue to pump in plenty of atmospheric moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will aid the development of showers and thunderstorms along the front and produce pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall.
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Chey, left, and Sadie Hennessy dance together during the bubble dance party at the inaugural Austin Yoga Festival at the Long Center, June 13, 2026. The festival featured multiple yoga sessions, mindfulness spaces, activations, food, music and dancing.
Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman
Bubbles fill the air during the bubble dance party at the inaugural Austin Yoga Festival at the Long Center, June 13, 2026. The festival featured multiple yoga sessions, mindfulness spaces, activations, food, music and dancing.
Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman
Sofiia Bila, from Celebrica Austin, makes bubbles during a dance party at the inaugural Austin Yoga Festival at the Long Center, June 13, 2026. The festival featured multiple yoga sessions, mindfulness spaces, activations, food, music and dancing.
Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman
Friday’s heat risk in Central Texas will be in the moderate category.
National Weather Service
Saturday’s heat risk in Central Texas will be mostly in the moderate category.
National Weather Service
Sunday’s heat risk in Central Texas will be mostly in the moderate category, but some isolated spots could face weather that poses a major risk of heat-related illness.
National Weather Service
Temperatures will be closer to average with afternoon temperatures climbing into the lower to mid-90s. Unfortunately, the heat index values will remain high with “feels like” temperatures ranging from 103 to 110 degrees in Central Texas. The region will be under an elevated heat risk through the weekend, according to the weather service. Such humidity-boosted heat can be dangerous, even life-threatening.
On hot days, we rely on the evaporation of sweat from our skin to cool down. But high humidity makes that process less efficient because the air is already filled with water vapor. The heat index takes this into account to more accurately describe the heat the body experiences, at least better than what actual air temperatures would suggest.
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Because your body’s ability to cool down is compromised, the potent combination of excessive humidity and extreme heat can become dangerous for those performing activities outside. You risk heat exhaustion or heatstroke if you don’t take adequate precautions for the heat.
If you must be outside, drink plenty of water, wear loose-fitting and light-colored clothing, and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned spaces. Also, never leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle, not even for a minute or two.
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Sunday forecast
The rain shifts east and a ridge of high atmospheric pressure builds back in over Texas on Sunday and through the first few days of next week. This rain-suppressing high pressure will bring back lots of sunshine and an increase in temperatures with afternoon highs back into the mid-90s.