With El Niño officially in place, sea-surface temperatures are trending above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
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El Niño, the naturally occurring but relatively infrequent warming of the equatorial waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean, continues to strengthen across the tropical Pacific, a trend that could lower hurricane activity in the Atlantic while increasing the odds of a wetter winter across Texas.
The latest update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows El Niño firmly in place. It officially arrived earlier this month when sea-surface temperatures in the tropical waters of the eastern Pacific exceeded the long-term average by 0.5 degrees Celsius. The latest El Nino index reading this month shows temperatures at least 0.7 degrees Celsius higher than normal.
The Climate Prediction Center gives this event more than a 60% chance of becoming a very strong or “super” El Niño through the fall and winter months as ocean and atmospheric conditions continue to reinforce one another.
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts show El Niño continuing to strengthen through the fall and winter months.
Climate Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
El Niño, wind shear and Tropical Storm Arthur
For Texas, the most immediate effects of a strengthening El Niño are expected during the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs through Nov. 30.
El Niño typically increases upper-level winds across the Atlantic basin, including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Those stronger winds create wind shear, a difference in wind speed or direction between the surface and higher levels of the atmosphere, which can disrupt developing tropical systems and make it more difficult for hurricanes to organize and intensify.
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Texas recently saw what that can look like with Tropical Storm Arthur. Although Arthur made landfall near Matagorda Bay, the storm remained poorly organized for much of its life cycle as persistent wind shear displaced much of its thunderstorm activity east of the center. The result was a lopsided tropical storm that produced heavy rain and coastal impacts but struggled to strengthen.
Historically, stronger El Niño events have favored fewer Atlantic hurricanes overall and fewer threats to the Texas coast. Texas has not experienced a hurricane landfall during an El Niño year since 1950, but that does not mean tropical systems are off the table.
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Arthur serves as a reminder that El Niño can reduce hurricane risk without eliminating it entirely.
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Because El Niño is already established and expected to strengthen through the peak months of hurricane season, its influence is more likely to be felt across the Atlantic than if the pattern had developed later in the year.
What does El Niño mean for snow in Houston?
Most of the recent attention surrounding El Niño has focused on hurricane season, but its most reliable influence on Texas weather typically arrives during the winter months.
As El Niño strengthens, the Pacific jet stream often becomes more active and shifts farther south, increasing the number of storm systems crossing the southern United States.
That pattern tends to favor wetter weather than normal across much of Texas during winter and early spring. For Southeast Texas, that can mean more frequent storm systems, increased rainfall and a higher potential for flooding during particularly active periods.
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While El Niño often influences winter rainfall across Texas, its connection to winter temperatures is less consistent. NOAA’s latest outlook shows equal chances of above-normal, near-normal and below-normal temperatures across much of Texas this winter.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
How much rain Houston ultimately receives will depend on how the atmosphere evolves in the coming months, but the broader climate signal favors a wetter winter.
Snowfall is one area where El Niño’s influence becomes less clear.
While El Niño tends to increase winter rainfall across Texas, Houston’s snowiest winters have occurred during all phases of the ENSO cycle, including El Niño, La Niña — the cooler counterpart to El Niño — and neutral conditions.
Unlike temperatures, an El Niño winter is likely to produce above-normal precipitation across Texas, including in Houston.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Since 1950, Houston has recorded measurable snowfall during four El Niño winters, five La Niña winters and three neutral winters. The city’s snowiest winter on record, 1972-73, occurred during a strong El Niño, but several other notable snow seasons developed during La Niña and neutral years.
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In other words, El Niño may increase the odds of a wetter winter across Southeast Texas, but it does not necessarily increase the odds of snow.
Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures on Jan. 1, 2026, based on NOAA satellite data.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
By June 8, warmer water than normal had expanded across much of the tropical Pacific as El Niño strengthened. NOAA satellite data show conditions in early June.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
How strong could El Niño become?
Over the past several months, unusually warm water has expanded across the tropical Pacific Ocean. At the same time, atmospheric patterns associated with El Niño have become more pronounced.
Trade winds have weakened across portions of the Pacific, rainfall has increased near the International Date Line and pressure patterns have shifted into a configuration typically associated with El Niño — signs that the atmosphere is responding to the warming ocean.
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A large reservoir of unusually warm water also remains beneath the surface of the Pacific, providing more fuel for strengthening in the months ahead. A strong El Niño has developed in the Pacific Ocean during only a handful of years, including 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16.
While it remains too early to know whether this event will ultimately join that group, El Niño continues to strengthen and remains on track to become one of the more significant events of the modern era.