A dense plume of Saharan dust (seen here in purple and blue) in Texas on Monday could be concentrated enough to produce milky blue-white afternoon skies and add a noticeable orange tinge to the day’s sunrise and sunset, according to the National Weather Service.
Goddard Earth Observing System/NASA/WeatherBELL
High atmospheric pressure and a dense plume of Saharan dust will be the dominant influences on Central Texas weather this week, days before we celebrate the nation’s 250th birthday this Fourth of July weekend.
“The weather doesn’t look to change much for South-Central Texas during the last few days of June as ridging (of high pressure) retains a firm hold on local conditions,” the National Weather Service said in a forecast bulletin posted online Sunday.
Article continues below this ad
Expect dry air from the high pressure to keep Austin rain-free for the rest of June and into the first week of July, forecasters said.
Monday’s forecast: Heat and dust
“As the residual low-level (atmospheric) moisture moves out of our area, that should allow slightly more favorable daytime mixing to shave a few degrees off the afternoon heat indices,” the weather service said.
Article continues below this ad
Austin on Monday could see actual temperatures flirt with the 100-degree mark, getting to 99 degrees in the afternoon. But with southerly breezes and drier air in place, heat index values will rise only a few degrees higher, likely to 103.
“The main wrinkle in the weather Monday is that a decent plume of dusty Saharan air is expected to spread across Texas throughout the day Monday,” the weather service said, adding that the concentration of dust “should be enough to produce milky blue-white afternoon skies and add a noticeable orange tinge to the day’s sunrise and sunset, depending on timing.”
Heat index values will be in the triple digits by 3 p.m. Monday along the Interstate 35 corridor, including in Austin, according to the National Blend of Models, a composite weather forecast model.
National Blend of Models/Pivotal Weather
Tuesday and this week
Austin on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday could see temperatures soaring to 98 degrees, with heat index values wavering between 103 and 104 degrees, forecasters said.
Article continues below this ad
“Steady hot and sunny weather is likely to continue as we close out June and kick off July,” the weather service said.
Forecasters were anticipating the development of slow-moving systems of low atmospheric pressure over the western United States to allow the system of high pressure dominating our region to shift northward.
“This should relax the pressure gradient over our area with the daytime breezes likely to diminish over the course of the week,” the weather service said. “This change-up only minimally impacts temperatures, so daytime highs throughout week ahead are still forecast to reach the mid-90s to around 100, with overnight lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 70s.”
Fourth of July forecast
While Friday could see afternoon temperatures as high as 99 degrees, the Fourth of July holiday on Saturday could be our first day of 100-degree actual air temperatures.
Article continues below this ad
“The first few days of July continue to look dry and we don’t have rain in the seven-day forecast for most of South-Central Texas,” the weather service said.
However, forecasters expect the shifting position of the high pressure to allow rain chances back into the outlook. But likely not for Austin.
“As high pressure lifts north, increased easterly flow around its periphery over the northern Gulf could bring some rains to the Coastal Plains late
week, ” the weather service said. “To the west, the amplified trough (of low pressure) should … spark afternoon/evening storms during the week, though it is highly unlikely that any of this activity will reach the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains.”
Article continues below this ad
So will we be able to enjoy Fourth of July fireworks without fear of being rained out on Saturday?
“For now, the general expectation is that it’ll be seasonably hot and dry for Independence Day festivities (with less than 10% of models in the latest model blend showing any rain),” forecasters said.