Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science—one of the nation’s leading hurricane forecasting groups—sharply lowered its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook Wednesday, predicting “well below-normal activity” as a developing El Niño pattern is expected to limit storm formation and strength.
CSU’s latest forecast calls for nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane this season. That is a significant drop from the historical averages between 1991 and 2020, which include 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
For the Gulf Coast, the updated forecast also brings a lower chance of a major hurricane strike.
CSU estimates there is now a 10 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast from Brownsville, Texas, to the Florida Panhandle after July 7. That compares with a historical average of 27 percent from 1880 to 2020.
The probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the continental U.S. coastline is also down to 17 percent, compared with an average of 43 percent.
El Niño is expected to create an increase in “wind shear” in the Caribbean and other tropical portions of the Atlantic Ocean, which should prevent storms from clustering and hitting landfall as hurricanes. Sea surface temperatures should remain stable compared to previous years, per Colorado State, helping keep hurricanes at bay.
Colorado State’s July forecast predicts hurricane conditions throughout the Gulf Coast and east coast of the United States from August through October. A final prediction update will be provided on August 5. Houstonians can likely breathe a sigh of relief as of early July. But Colorado State’s team stressed continued vigilance in Wednesday’s report, urging citizens to remain prepared for any storm that could make landfall this summer and early fall.
“As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” the Colorado State report reads. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.”
Wednesday’s update represents a major reduction from CSU’s first forecast released in April.
At the time, researchers predicted a somewhat below-normal season with 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. CSU warned that the April outlook carried more uncertainty because ocean and atmospheric conditions can change significantly before the peak of hurricane season.
The university lowered its forecast again in June before making the latest July downgrade.
CSU’s next and final seasonal forecast update is scheduled for Aug. 5.