Most of Texas is feeling the weight of scorching summer days, accompanied by a wave of humidity that settles like a muggy dome over major Texas metros. But in a rare turn of events, forecasters say a cold front in mid-July will bring downpours that shatter the month’s previous rain averages.
By June, the idea of a burst of northern air cooling down the Lone Star State is basically unheard of – no matter how many vision boards cold fronts land on. Yet in typical Texas fashion, expect the unexpected when it comes to Texas weather.
“The forecast is suddenly looking much more interesting through early next week… Also highly unusual by July standards,” CBS Austin meteorologist Avery Tomasco predicted online. “Our data is putting the next intense heat dome over the northern U.S. next which changes the game entirely for us.”
He says a clockwise circulation of air around this heat dome up north could hurl a weak cold front toward Texas, potentially approaching areas north of Central Texas and fueling storm development.
Tomasco says rain totals could exceed a couple of inches in Central Texas, though about 2 inches is most likely. That’s a significant development, given that Austin typically sees less than 2 inches of rain in all of July, says Tomasco. In just a couple of days, rain totals could surpass the historical monthly average.
According to National Weather Service records, San Antonio typically receives about 2.41 inches of rain in July. With a “Super” El Niño forming off the coast and funneling the subtropical jet stream toward Texas, could this spell an exceptionally wet summer for South Central Texas? At least July is shaping up to be that way.
In terms of temperatures, don’t expect fall-like highs with this “cold front.” But it will keep those terrifying triple-digit days at bay, dropping highs on the northern end of Texas into the low 90s – a near 10-degree dip from the 100-degree weather early this week.
San Antonio could see a significant cooldown (even if it’s mostly chalked up to cloud cover from possible storms), with afternoons hovering in the low 90s. That’s the case for most major metros across Texas, as cities from Dalhart to Dallas and south to San Antonio see rain chances climb to 30% to 60% Thursday, July 9, through the weekend.
“Yes, this could prompt some level of flood threat, but considering our last soaking was more than two weeks ago, most of that water will go into the soil rather (than) our rivers,” Tomasco said.