Houston forecast: Heavy rain potential creates a street flooding threat early week

Monday and Tuesday’s forecast:

HOUSTON – These are the two days that you need to make sure you’re prepared for. There is the potential for street flooding both days. We haven’t had a heavy rain forecast like this in a month. Not only do we have tropical moisture streaming in from the Gulf, but we also have a front that will enhance the lift of the storms. This combination may lead to rain totals of 2″-3″.

Timing on Monday’s rain looks to be closer to the early afternoon through early evening. With the deeper tropical moisture that is being pulled in across the area, storms could drop anywhere from 1-2″ of rain quickly. That could lead to some isolated areas of street flooding in the usual known trouble areas.

Storm chances by 12pm Monday (Copyright 2025 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.)Storm timing by 5pm Monday (Copyright 2025 by KPRC Click2Houston – All rights reserved.)The impact of Saharan Dust:

One part of the forecast that remains difficult to model is the impact of Saharan dust. We seeing a plume of dust to move over Southeast Texas from Monday through Thursday, and current imagery suggests it could be fairly dense.

Thick layers of dust aloft tend to dry the atmosphere and promote sinking air, which can limit the intensity of rainfall. If the dust is less concentrated, however, its tiny particles can serve as condensation nuclei and actually enhance rain development.

At this point, the abundant Gulf moisture will likely outweigh the dust’s suppressing effects. Still, if storm impacts are more limited than expected on Monday and Tuesday, Saharan dust is a likely reason.

Once we get through Wednesday, high pressure will begin to build in. By the end of next week drier weather is expected with hotter temperatures.

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