(Every roster is different, but there are traits on each one. All summer, Daniel Kelley will go roster-by-roster to identify the top fantasy football sleeper and bust on each roster and make a bold prediction for each team. This is Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions.)
Summary
Dallas Cowboys sleepers lean to a low-end WR handcuff option: Ryan Flournoy is highlighted as a potential late-round stash with upside if targets surge due to Lamb/Pickens injuries.
Jake Ferguson bust hinges on Lamb’s health and TE role volatility: Ferguson’s value drops when Lamb plays, making him risky as a starter or high-end backup.
Bold prediction: Jaydon Blue could become Cowboys’ top RB receiver: Blue may surpass Williams as a receiving back, offering nice fantasy upside if usage grows
The Cowboys of recent vintage have been a failure. They famously haven’t played in a Conference Championship game since the 1995 season, going 5-13 in the playoffs since then.
But by another definition, they’ve been a spectacular success.
In the last 12 years, the Cowboys have five division titles. The only teams with more in that span are the Chiefs (nine AFC West crowns), Patriots (seven AFC East championships) and Texans (six in the famously not-great AFC South). They are tied with the Bills, Packers, Eagles and Steelers for four-most division titles in the last 12 years.
Does that mean the Cowboys have been better than popular sentiment would have you believe? Or does the fact that they’ve had that much regular season success just underline how disappointing their playoff resume is? I guess that depends on whether you are in the business of making the Cowboys sound good or not. But if you were taking a regular season team in the last 12 years, only the Chiefs have more 12-win seasons than the Cowboys. That counts for something.
2026 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Dallas Cowboys
Sleeper: Ryan Flournoy, WR
Cowboys receivers had 24 top-20 PPR weeks. George Pickens (13) and CeeDee Lamb (7) obviously dominated that, but Flourney had three himself (and KaVontae Turpin had one). Flournoy’s came in Weeks 5, 14 and 18. Those also happen to be the only three games of his career where he’s topped 6 targets. Or, in shorter terms, Flournoy in his career:
When getting 7-plus targets: 6.7 receptions, 99.0 yards, 18.9 PPR points
When getting 6 or fewer targets: 1.3 receptions, 11.7 yards, 3.1 PPR points
So the question is whether Flournoy can get at least 7 targets often enough to be worth it. And the answer right now is … probably not. This is a Dallas offense that will run through Lamb, Pickens, Javonte Williams and Jake Ferguson. Flournoy had the three big games last year — one of them came when Lamb was out, the other came in Week 18 when things are just different. So as long as the guys ahead of him (Lamb and Pickens especially) are healthy, Flournoy’s not much of a fantasy option.
But he’s maybe the best handcuff among pass catchers, if such a thing exists.
Handcuffing is obviously more of a strategy at the RB position, but if something were to happen to Lamb and/or Pickens, Flournoy would have the potential for 8-10 targets a week if not more. Someone getting that number of targets in a Dallas/Dak Prescott offense with that defense would be a borderline weekly starter, and you can have him for free if you act early.
Bust: Jake Ferguson, TE
Through Week 7 of last year, it was Ferguson — not Trey McBride — who was TE1 in PPR leagues, with 120.4 points compared to McBride’s 113.1. He finished the year as TE5, his second top-10 finish in three years.
The problem is, though, that so much of Ferguson’s production required CeeDee Lamb to be out. Per the FTN NFL Splits Tool, Ferguson averaged 8.3 targets, 7.5 receptions, 51.0 yards and 1.0 touchdowns per game in the games Lamb missed, but 5.3, 4.0, 30.5 and 0.3 when Lamb was on the field. His PPR production literally was cut more than in half (18.6 points to 8.9) without Lamb.
“But isn’t this the same argument you used in favor of drafting Ryan Flournoy?” I hear you asking. And yes! The difference is: Tight end is basically a onesie position. If you’re drafted (or using FAAB on) Flournoy, he’s at the end of your roster, a stash to hold on to in case he comes in handy. If you’re drafting Ferguson, it’s likely to use him as your starter or at least as a high-end backup you want to count on. And unless something happens to Lamb/Pickens in the preseason, Ferguson won’t be startable in fantasy from the start, making him a wasted pick.
Bold Prediction: Jaydon Blue Finishes Top-10 in RB Receptions
Blue’s 2025 was one of the disappointments of 2025. After being a popular sleeper as a fifth-round rookie, he played only five games, getting 38 carries and a single target and not doing a lot with them. Meanwhile, Javonte Williams salvaged his career last year, rushing for a career-high 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s locked in as the team’s primary ball carrier for 2026.
But lost in that is that Williams was … pretty terrible as a receiving back. Williams put up -0.446 EPA per target last year (per FTN Stats & Charting), far and away the worst among qualified backs (Alvin Kamara’s -0.299 was the next worst). By DVOA, Williams offered -45.1% as a receiver, better only than Quinshon Judkins. He was tied for 20th among running backs in receptions with 35, but the Cowboys didn’t really have anyone else anyway.
The team didn’t add much of anyone at the position for 2026, but Blue has a year under his belt. He’s already talked about how he wasn’t ready for his rookie campaign, and the Cowboys could really use someone who can handle the receiving side of things to keep Williams fresh on the ground. Blue, who had 42 receptions in his final year at Texas, can be the receiving back in this offense.