Parts of South Texas are still experiencing flooding after 10 to 20 inches of rain fell across the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and U.S. 90 corridor last week. Although no new rainfall has fallen over the region in the past five days, floodwaters continue to move downstream, keeping a flood threat in place for several communities south of the San Antonio area.
The greatest threat remains along the Nueces and Frio rivers, where flood warnings are still in place for portions of Frio, Dimmit, La Salle, and McMullen counties. The Nueces River, in particular, remains above major flood stage in several locations, posing an ongoing threat to lives and property.
The most significant flooding is occurring along the Nueces River near Cotulla, a small town in La Salle County about 85 miles southwest of San Antonio. As of 10 a.m. Wednesday, the river stood at 29 feet in Cotulla, which is nearly 12 feet above major flood stage.
This marks the third-highest crest ever recorded on the Nueces River at Cotulla and the highest river level there since 1999.
According to forecasts made by the National Water Prediction Service, river levels are expected to recede only gradually over the next several days, likely remaining above 25 feet though next Monday. At that rate, river levels likely won’t fall below flood stage until at least the first week of August.
When the river exceeds 20 feet, evacuations of livestock and some residential properties along the river become necessary. Several roads are also expected to flood, including FM 3408, Valley Wells Road, portions of Dobie Road, and FM 624.
Farther upstream, the Nueces River also remains above major flood stage near Asherton. However, water levels there are already starting to fall and are expected to drop below major flood stage by Friday.
Just 45 miles east of Cotulla, the flood threat is rising in the town of Tilden in McMullen County. As of 10 a.m. Wednesday, the Frio River – which runs across the west side of town – had risen above 24 feet, reaching minor flood stage.
River levels are expected to continue rising over the next 24 to 30 hours, with the Frio forecast to crest at 28.4 feet Thursday afternoon.
Major flooding occurs when the river rises above 27 feet. At that point, many residences and businesses on the west side of Tilden are expected to flood, and some evacuations may become necessary.
Lowland flooding of crops and pastureland also is likely in the area, and many roads near the river will likely become inundated with floodwater and become dangerous to travel.
Major flooding is likely to continue along the Frio River in Tilden into Friday and Saturday. River levels are then expected to slowly recede, falling back into minor flood stage by Sunday.