A flood warning remains in effect for La Salle and McMullen counties, where the towns of Cotulla and Tilden, respectively, have already seen extensive flooding from the rising rivers; however, the flood warning has now been extended to include Live Oak County, where the Nueces River is expected to crest later this week.
“The main flood wave has reached Tilden and the river is nearing major flood stage early this morning with a continued rise today. Three Rivers will gradually rise to major flood stage this week,” meteorologists at the National Weather Service – Corpus Christi said in a forecast advisory early Monday morning.
While the floodwaters in the Frio River have already begun to subside, the Nueces River continues to threaten downstream communities in the inland Coastal Bend, with forecasters calling for “major flooding” in Three Rivers, Mathis, Bluntzer and Calallen, a suburb of Corpus Christi. In Three Rivers, the Nueces River is expected to reach flood stage in the early afternoon on Wednesday, July 29, and continue rising into major flood stage within about 12 hours, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast modeling.
As of 10 a.m. Monday, the Nueces River at Three Rivers had already risen a little more than five feet to 6.34 feet. It is expected to reach action stage at 20 feet between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m. on Wednesday, then continue to rise into major flood stage of 35 feet by 1 a.m. Thursday morning. The Nueces River is expected to crest at 40.3 feet sometime Friday afternoon.
At 40 feet, “significant flooding reaches miles from the main channel, flooding homes in the flood plain near Three Rivers to Lake Corpus Christi,” according to NOAA guidance.
The Nueces River is not expected to rise as high as the flood of record, which saw the river crest at 49.21 feet on September 23, 1967. However, this week’s projected crest is expected to rival a similar flood that occurred in July 2007 after weeks of heavy rain flooded every major river in Texas, according to NASA. NOAA no longer maintains a flood gauge in George West, the next major inhabited area downstream of Three Rivers. However, another flood gauge located in Mathis, which lies about two miles east of Lake Corpus Christi, shows the Nueces River there remains low at 1.07 feet.