BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) – A new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Democrat James Talarico is leading Republican Ken Paxton by five points in the race for U.S. Senate — and it’s generating both buzz and skepticism.
The poll shows Talarico performing well with typically Republican voters. About 20 percent of those voters say they are either leaning toward Tallarico or undecided.
Not everyone is taking the numbers at face value though. Critics are urging caution, noting the polling firm’s chief strategist has past ties to the Democratic Party.
Soren Jordan, a political science professor at the Texas A&M Bush School of Government, says the soft Republican support isn’t surprising, given the bruising primary between Paxton and former Sen. Cornyn.
“A lot of those voters — more traditional, institutional Republicans — probably aren’t that energized about Paxton,” Jordan said. “He doesn’t necessarily reflect traditional Republican values. And so they’re not very energized about voting for him in the fall.”
On the poll’s credibility, Jordan says the bigger concern isn’t partisan bias — it’s methodology. The survey was conducted online, a format that tends to skew younger, more educated, and more left-leaning.
“Those are my concerns — more about the polling environment itself, less about the person who’s in charge of the actual think tank,” he said.
With 12 weeks until Election Day, Jordan says the economy remains the dominant issue for both candidates. He says Paxton needs a legislative win before Congress wraps up, while Talarico needs to stay visible and appeal to moderate Republicans who may have preferred Cornyn.
“Voters may be willing to consider Democrats if they believe they’re more apt to the challenge of dealing with the economy,” Jordan said.
Jordan cautions it’s still early — July is a long way from November, and a lot can change. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to a major statewide office in decades.
Copyright 2026 KBTX. All rights reserved.