The Houston Cougars (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) visit the UCF Knights (4-4, 1-4) Friday night at FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the Houston vs. UCF odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Houston’s 3-game winning streak ended with a 45-35 loss against the West Virginia Mountaineers last week while failing to cover as a 12.5-point home favorite as the Over (48.5) hit. QB Conner Weigman threw for 309 yards with 4 TDs and 2 INTs while punching in the Cougars; only rushing TD. The Cougars’ defense allowed 246 yards and 4 TDs on the ground in the loss.

UCF has dropped 4 of its last 5 games after losing 30-3 against the Baylor Bears last week as a 3-point road underdog with the Under (59) hitting. QB Tayven Jackson threw for 151 yards and 2 INTs while the Knights rushed for just 74 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per carry in the blowout.

UCF leads the all-time series 8-3 and has won the last 3 meetings, including 27-13 in 2023. Houston covered as a 15.5-point home underdog and the Under (61.5) hit.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Watch NCAA football on Fubo!Houston at UCF odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:39 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Houston -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | UCF -105 (bet $105 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Houston -1.5 (-110) | UCF +1.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Houston at UCF picks and predictionsPrediction

Houston 28, UCF 27

BET HOUSTON (-115).

Despite the spread having a minimally better value for the Cougars compared to the moneyline, the Cougars winning outright is the best play. They were dominated last week, allowing 45 points primarily because of their inability to stop West Virginia’s run game, but that game was an anomaly compared to 7 of their previous 8 games. They are undefeated on the road this season and have a powerful offense, scoring at least 24 points in all but 1 game.

The Knights have lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 or fewer points in 2 of their last 3. They have allowed at least 20 points in 4 of their last 5, not a promising sign headed into Friday night.

PASS.

With the difference between the spread and moneyline being so slim, the Cougars to win outright is the better play.

BET OVER 47.5 (-105).

The Cougars have scored at least 31 points in 3 of their last 4 games and have hit the Over in each of those games. They have a 6-3 Over record and are averaging 29.4 points per game.

The Knights have allowed at least 27 points in 3 of their last 5 games, while scoring at least 20 points in 5 of the last 7. They average 27.2 PPG

With the Cougars carrying the load, it will not take much by the Knights for the Over to hit.

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