A blue Texas in 2026 is looking less and less like a pipe dream, after four consecutive polls released in the last week have shown Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
On Tuesday, a poll conducted by Texas Southern University found Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 45%. That followed a Wedgewood Polls survey from Monday showing Talarico with a 48%-to-46% lead, a Texas Public Opinion Research poll from last week showing Talarico ahead of Paxton, 45% to 40%, and a survey from Fox News that showed Talarico up over Paxton by a 51%-to-48% margin.
The Fox News poll—which despite Fox’s right-wing bent is actually one of the more accurate and respected of media organization-funded polls—was perhaps the most concerning of all for Republicans as it had Talarico over the crucial 50% mark.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, speaks during a primary runoff election night event May 26, in Plano, Texas. AP
You know things are bad for Paxton when a spokesperson for his campaign told Axios that, “The only poll that matters is Nov. 3.”
That cliche is No. 2 on Inside Election’s infamous list of “10 things losing candidates say.”
“This doesn’t guarantee defeat in the upcoming election, but it means you are losing the race at the time and have no empirical evidence to the contrary,” Inside Elections’ Editor-in-Chief Nathan Gonzales wrote in the 2013 article that has stood the test of time. “It’s up to the candidate to change the dynamic of the race.”
Indeed, after this latest spate of polls, even Republicans admit that Talarico would win if the election was held today.
“Look, it’s easy to imagine that the partisanship of the state or undecideds will bring this back home, but right now Talarico has a small lead in virtually every poll and if the election were held today, he’d probably win. That’s the situation,” GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote Tuesday in a post on X.
Yet despite that fact, not a single Republican super PAC has stepped in to help Paxton who is struggling to raise money as the GOP donor class loathes the scandal-plagued politician.
In fact, on Tuesday, AFP Action—the super PAC tied to the billionaire Koch brothers—announced $5.6 million in campaign ad reservations in five Senate races. And you guessed it, Texas is not on the list—though Montana is, suggesting Republicans are now nervous about that seat (an article for another day).
Given that Paxton is behind, one would think that President Donald Trump would step in to help Paxton, who he endorsed at the eleventh hour over the objections of Republican leaders and campaign operatives who feared Paxton’s personal shortcomings could cost the party a Senate seat.
That’s what Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly told Trump to do after Trump waded into that primary against Thune’s wishes.
“Republicans may keep Texas, but you broke it, you buy it. MAGA Inc. just became Texas Inc.,” an unnamed Thune ally told Axios in May, after Trump made his Paxton endorsement.
Yet Trump has yet to spend a dime of his massive war chest to help Paxton—or any other Republicans in competitive reelection battles, for that matter. He’s used the money only to try to defeat GOP politicians who he’s deemed insufficiently loyal to him, proving that he cares more about soothing his massive ego than helping his party.
Related | Trump is keeping his war chest from Republicans
Talarico, for his part, has amassed a massive war chest and is preparing for the onslaught of bizarre Republican attacks about his manliness that the GOP hopes will push Paxton over the finish line.
And in the process, he’s taking every opportunity he gets to remind voters of just how corrupt and amoral Paxton is.
“The only thing worse than Ken Paxton’s personal cheating is his public cheating,” Talarico said Monday night on MS NOW. “Today is the anniversary of his famous mugshot—that was because he was indicted for investment fraud. What’s fascinating about that story is that he was scamming his own friends. He convinced his own friends to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into a tech company, and then he didn’t tell them that he was getting a commission off those investments.”
.@JamesTalarico: The only thing worse than Ken Paxton’s personal cheating is his public cheating.
Today is the the anniversary of his famous mugshot — that was because he was indicted for investment fraud. What’s fascinating about that story is that he was scamming his own… https://t.co/p5vSALjaEO pic.twitter.com/jmiEvXu2bg
— Team Talarico (@TeamTalaricoHQ) August 4, 2026
Talarico added, “If Ken Paxton is willing to scam his own friends for a quick buck, what makes you think he’s not going to scam you in the United States Senate?”
And that, my friends, is why Texas is in play in November.
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