Closing down tonight’s loaded MLB slate, the Houston Astros will take on the San Diego Padres in tonight’s Sunday Night Baseball matchup.

These two teams split their first two matchups in this series and will face off for the rubber match tonight. The Astros got on top with a 6-3 victory in the series opener, before the Padres responded with a 3-2 win yesterday. Cristian Javier and Randy Vasquez will be on the mound for their respective teams.

Looking at the odds for tonight, the Padres enter as -116 favorites on the moneyline and hold +158 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Astros hold +108 odds of winning outright, with the run total set at nine.

Astros at Padres prediction, preview

The Houston Astros are off to a 60-58 start to the season, which slots them in the top seed in the American League West. The Texas Rangers are just a half-game behind them in the standings, as the seedings race hits its full gear. Houston is looking to bounce back from last night’s loss, but has won eight of their past 11. On the season overall, the Astros have gone 61-57 to the run line, and the run total is 63-50-4 to the over/under. 

Cristian Javier will be making the start for the Astros, marking his 10th appearance and sixth start on the season. Across his 27.1 innings pitched, the right-hander is posting a 1-2 record, a 6.59 ERA, a 1.683 WHIP, four home runs allowed, and 23 strikeouts tallied. Javier has struggled in the starter role, posting a 9.33 ERA across his five starts, with 24 hits and 19 runs allowed. He has faced this Padres lineup in 49 combined at-bats in his career, allowing 13 hits and recording 15 strikeouts.

At the plate, the Astros are slashing a combined .246/.322/.417 with a .739 OPS. Houston ranks 11th in total hits, 10th in runs, third in home runs, and 19th in strikeouts. Yordan Alvarez has had a stellar season, leading the entire MLB with 137 hits, 35 home runs, and 86 RBI. Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker have each cracked 100+ hits on the season as well, and combine for 37 home runs and 127 RBI. Cam Smith, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, and Yainer Diaz each also play notable roles.

The San Diego Padres hold a 61-57 record on the season, which slots them in third place in the National League West. They have performed at an encouraging level of late, winning 11 of their past 15. On the season overall, the Padres have gone 63-55 to the run line, and the run total is 63-50-5 to the over/under.

Randy Vasquez will be getting the start for San Diego tonight. The 27-year-old has made 22 appearances and 19 starts this season. Vasquez enters with a 6-7 record, a 4.19 ERA, a 1.416 WHIP, 14 home runs conceded and 65 strikeouts tallied across 101 innings pitched. He is coming off a six-inning scoreless outing against the Diamondbacks in his previous start, and he is posting an impressive 1.59 ERA across his past five outings. The right-hander has faced this Astros lineup in 16 at-bats in his career, allowing four hits and recording four strikeouts.

Looking at the Padres’ production at the plate, the team is slashing a collective .236/.313/.382 with a .695 OPS. San Diego ranks 25th in hits, 22nd in runs, 20th in home runs, and 20th in strikeouts. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with 128 hits, including 24 doubles, 10 home runs, and 51 RBI. Jackson Merrill adds 108 hits and a team-worst 117 strikeouts along with 17 home runs and 58 RBIs. Manny Machado offers a team-high 23 home runs along with 70 RBI, while Ty France and Gavin Sheets combine for 30 home runs, and Xander Bogaerts also plays a key role.

Astros at Padres pick, best bet

These teams split the opening two matchups in this series, and the pitching matchup will be a key factor in this game. Cristian Javier has failed to find his footing on the season and has especially struggled in the starting pitcher role. His 9.33 ERA across his five starts should be enough to raise some eyebrows in itself. This is especially concerning given the matchup with this Padres team, as they have posted slash lines of .265/.345/.510 with a .856 OPS in his career. Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Luis Rengifo have each homered off Javier in just 20 combined at-bats.

While Randy Vasquez has had some ups-and-downs on the season as well, he is performing at a high rate of late. The right-hander is coming off back-to-back starts without allowing an earned run and is posting a 1.59 ERA across his past five games. Vasquez has had relative success against the Astros, limiting them to four hits in 16 at-bats in his career. Dalton Varsho is the lone player with significant success, as he has tallied a double and a home run with three RBI in four at-bats. But Varsho has just two hits across his first five games with the Astros and has just a .384 OPS in Houston.

On the wider scale of the season, both these teams have been fairly inconsistent in their results. But the recent stretch from the Padres is worth taking note of. San Diego has won 11 of their past 15 and is one game out of the Wild Card race. They also have won eight of their past 10 home games.

Expect the Padres to continue to battle for this Wild Card spot and for the pitching matchup to be the difference in this game. My lean is toward the over from a scoring perspective, but expect Javier’s struggles to be the biggest storyline in this matchup and for the Padres to punish the middling Astros starter. Back San Diego to remain hot and score at a rate that Houston cannot match to pick up the home victory tonight.

Best bet: Padres Moneyline (-116)

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