TCU students in the crosswalk bundled up during passing period on University Drive at TCU in Fort Worth on Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2025. Freezing temperatures and subzero wind chills continue across North Texas on Wednesday.
Chris Torres
ctorres@star-telegram.com
Fort Worth
As North Texans continue sweating out summer temperatures, predictions are rolling in on what to expect this winter.
It’s been a warm summer in the Metroplex, with the region recording its first triple digit day on July 7. As of Sunday, Aug. 9, North Texas has recorded 17 days at or above 100 degrees, which is already more than last year’s total of seven.
As folks dream of cooler temperatures, the Farmers’ Almanac’s (not to be confused with the Old Farmer’s Almanac) recently released its winter weather forecast for the end of the year and into 2027.
Here’s what to know.
🎬 In case you missed it:
Farmers’ Almanac’s winter weather forecast for Texas
Texas is expected to have a stormy and wetter-than-normal winter.
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Farmers’ Almanac’s 2026-2027 winter weather outlook. Courtesy of Farmers’ Almanac
Farmers’ Almanac says El Niño will be an important influence this winter, particularly favoring wetter-than-normal conditions across the southern part of the country, including Texas. Frequent storm systems and surges of cold air are expected in these areas.
El Niño, which means little boy in Spanish, is a weather pattern that pushes warm water east to towards the west coast of the Americas, according to the National Ocean Service. The warmer water causes the pacific jet stream to move south of its position, which makes areas in the Southeast and U.S. Gulf Coast have periods of increased flooding and wetter-than-usual conditions.
Due to these conditions, an active southern storm track will likely bring heavier-than-normal precipitation to Texas and states across the Southeast, according to the Farmers’ Almanac.
How does the NOAA forecast for winter compare?
Above normal precipitation is expected in Texas this winter, according to an outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.
The seasonal precipitation outlook for the U.S. for December 2026 through February 2027. Climate Prediction Center
The seasonal precipitation and temperature outlooks, both issued on July 16, are four-and-a-half month predictions valid from December 2026 to February 2027.
Precipitation-wise, the CPC’s outlook is predicting a 40-50% chance of above normal rainfall for much of the state during the winter months. In North Texas, the normal monthly rainfall for December is 2.84 inches, 2.53 inches in January and 2.76 inches in February.
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The seasonal temperature outlook for the U.S. for December 2026 through February 2027. Climate Prediction Center
The CPC’s outlook is predicting “equal chances” for temperatures for most of the state, including North Texas.
When forecasters use “equal chances,” it means they think an area has three possible outcomes — well above, well below, or near normal — that are all equally likely, according to the CPC. Or, sometimes it means that there are no strong influences that would favor one outcome over another.
In North Texas, the normal monthly high for December is 57.9 degrees, 56.5 degrees in January and 60.9 degrees in February.
While this is a snapshot of how things are expected to look in the future, a one-month outlook and subsequent weeks’ and days’ forecast will give a better look at what to expect as the date grows near, according to the National Weather Service.
How accurate is the Farmers’ Almanac?
The Farmers’ Almanac’s winter outlook was prepared by forecaster Caleb Weatherbee, who used the same proprietary formula the organization has used since its founding in 1818.
This formula uses natural cycles, solar activity, lunar influences and historical weather patterns. The organization then combines the historical formula with modern forecasting tools like satellite observations and computer modeling.
“Together, these old and new methods help Caleb develop a broad, long-range regional outlook intended to help readers plan ahead — while remembering that nature always has the final word,” according to the Farmers’ Almanac.
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Brayden Garcia is the entertainment reporter at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, where he mainly writes about how the film and TV industry impacts North Texas, from Taylor Sheridan shows to the Fort Worth Film Commission and everything in between.