North Texans could see an increased amount of precipitation this winter, including rain or snow.
Staff Photographer
North Texans could be in for a wetter winter this year due to El Niño, but don’t start shopping for snow shovels just yet.
While El Niño has been strengthening in the Pacific Ocean over the last few months, it’s still too early to tell exactly what weather conditions North Texas may see this winter, said Tom Bradshaw, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service’s Fort Worth office.
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What is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that can alter global patterns. Bradshaw said it develops gradually when sea surface temperatures become warmer than average in the tropical Pacific.
Those warmer waters can change atmospheric circulation and the position of the fast-moving air currents in the jet stream, which can affect weather patterns. During a typical El Niño winter, the storm track increases the chances of wetter weather in the southern U.S., according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to 12 months, according to NOAA.
Related: 5 things El Niño isn’t: Separating fact from fiction about the weather phenomenon
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What does El Niño mean for North Texas?
Bradshaw said North Texans can expect a “wetter than normal” season with the possibility of cooler temperatures on average.
Wetter than normal means an increased precipitation over the course of the season, but not necessarily more snow.
Related: Despite low rain totals, most of Texas isn’t in drought — yet. But that could change soon
Whether that precipitation falls as rain or snow depends on atmospheric conditions that cannot be reliably predicted months in advance.
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Bradshaw said forecasters typically get a much clearer picture of potential winter weather events, such as ice or snow, within a few weeks of an event, meaning it’s too soon to determine if Dallas will see snow this winter.
While cooler temperatures on average are expected, Bradshaw said that doesn’t necessarily translate to the prolonged freezing temperatures required for snow or ice.
“It’s pretty challenging to draw conclusions from El Niño by itself,” Bradshaw said.
Bradshaw said other atmospheric conditions, such as the Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific-North America pattern, will also impact North Texas’ weather this winter. Weather oscillations are natural shifts in the positions of atmospheric pressure systems or sea surface temperatures.
“The El Niño pattern is not the only game in town in the atmosphere,” Bradshaw said.
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Related: More hot weather on the way? High temps to extend into early fall in North Texas, NWS says
Could a Super El Niño develop in 2026?
The Climate Prediction Center said in an Aug. 13 alert this year’s El Niño is strengthening and has a 90% of being a “very strong event” this fall and winter. Additionally, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would “exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” according to the alert.
Dallas-Fort Worth last saw a rainy winter in 2023 due to El Niño, where the region experienced increased rain through spring 2024.
Bradshaw said while a “super” El Niño is more of an informal term, El Niño is strengthening, and sea surface temperatures are getting warmer. However, the alert only indicates higher sea surface temperatures and does not directly confirm weather patterns, Bradshaw said.
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Related: Farmers’ Almanac predicts Texas will see wet, stormy winter
A stronger El Niño increases the likelihood that seasonal weather will resemble the pattern typically associated with El Niño in the southern U.S., which is wetter conditions, but it doesn’t determine how much rain or snow a specific place will receive.
“It doesn’t mean we’re going to have record breaking rain,” Bradshaw said. “It’s not out of the question, but to conclude just based on the fact that El Niño itself is very strong, that doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re going to have 300 [or] 400% of normal rainfall.”
Bradshaw said El Niño is expected to continue strengthening as sea surface temperatures are expected to peak by October or November. Forecasters should have a clearer picture this fall as the pattern develops, he said.