Editor’s note: This story is adapted from The Athletic’s preseason guide to all 138 FBS teams ahead of the 2026 season.
Texas Tech loaded up in the portal again after winning its first Big 12 championship, though it will move forward without Cincinnati transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby as teams like BYU, Houston, TCU and Utah give chase.
Who’s trending up and down in the Big 12 entering 2026? What do you need to know about all 16 teams? Here’s our guide to the league’s teams, coaches and top players, with rankings from Chris Vannini’s The Athletic 138, and Playoff and conference championship odds from Austin Mock’s predictor model.
Read our guide to all 138 FBS teams here.
Three storylines to watch: Indiana, Arch and Kiffin
Stewart Mandel
Arizona Wildcats
2025 record: 9-4 (6-3 Big 12)
Location: Tucson, Ariz.
Odds to make the CFP: 11.3%
Odds to win the Big 12: 4.4%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 28th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? The same.
Pedigree: Arizona won its only Pac-10 championship in 1993 and has played in 10 bowl games since 2008. The Wildcats have played in the Fiesta Bowl three times — most recently in 2014 — but no other major bowl games. Last year’s nine-win season was only the eighth in program history.
Why they’re interesting: The Wildcats have the Big 12’s most experienced starting quarterback, but almost everything around him has changed. After a disastrous 4-8 season in 2024, the Wildcats improved to 9-4 last year, and another strong season would establish Brent Brennan’s turnaround as something more sustainable than a one-year rebound.
Who is the coach? Brennan, 53, enters his third season at Arizona. He is 47-60 in nine years as an FBS head coach, including seven at San Jose State, where he led the Spartans to the 2020 Mountain West championship. Brennan was rewarded after last season with a contract extension, which pays him $4.7 million annually through 2030.
Who is the QB? Noah Fifita (No. 10 in QB Tiers) returns for his fourth year as Arizona’s starter. He threw for 3,228 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2025, earning first-team All-Big 12 honors. Fifita owns Arizona’s single-season and career touchdown-pass records and enters 2026 within 828 yards of Nick Foles’ school career passing-yardage record.
Key player: Linebacker Taye Brown. The third-team All-Big 12 selection was Arizona’s second-leading tackler (93) and is one of the few established veterans returning to a defense undergoing significant reconstruction. With four NFL Draft picks no longer in the secondary, Brown will be responsible for organizing a defense filled with transfers and inexperienced players.
Game to circle: Nov. 28 vs. Arizona State. Arizona has won three out of four with a 23-7 victory for the Territorial Cup last season, but Kenny Dillingham’s program is still viewed as the big brother in-state, having won the Big 12 championship in 2024.
— Manny Navarro
Arizona State Sun Devils
2025 record: 8-5 (6-3 Big 12)
Location: Tempe, Ariz.
Odds to make the CFP: 7%
Odds to win the Big 12: 3%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 45th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? About the same — not in the top tier of the Big 12 but can play with or beat those teams on the right day.
Pedigree: Arizona State was typically viewed as a program that flashed moments of promise but never sustained success. The Sun Devils have won only four conference titles since 1980: three in the Pac-12 (1986, 1996, 2007) and one in the Big 12 (2024). Their 2024 Playoff trip marked their only top-10 finish since 1996.
Why they’re interesting: The Sun Devils were an intriguing program in the Pac-12 but have improved their lot in life during realignment and should now be a consistent conference title contender in the Big 12.
Who is the coach? Kenny Dillingham, 36, is viewed as one of the best young head coaches in the country and turned down interest from Michigan to stay at his alma mater. He’s 22-17 in three seasons with the Sun Devils, but the program was in a dark place when he took over following the Herm Edwards debacle. He’s energized the fan base, has delivered a conference title and Playoff trip and clearly cares about elevating Arizona State football.
Who is the QB? Dillingham is viewed as a QB whisperer, and after Sam Leavitt bolted for LSU, his next project is Cutter Boley (No. 40 in QB Tiers). Boley, who threw for 2,160 yards with 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions at Kentucky last season, has work to do as a passer and needs to better protect the ball. But if Dillingham believes in him, there’s potential there.
Key player: There’s optimism about the receiving corps — despite the loss of first-round pick Jordyn Tyson — due in large part to the arrival of Omarion Miller from Colorado. Miller caught 45 passes for 808 yards (18 yards per) as a junior.
Game to circle: Oct. 17 at Texas Tech. Yes, there’s a Week 2 game at Texas A&M, but the game against the Red Raiders has conference stakes as the past two league champions square off.
— Antonio Morales
Big 12’s Best Non-QBs
RankPlayerTeamPosition
25
A.J. Holmes Jr.
DT
36
Brice Pollock
CB
42
Evan Tengesdahl
G
46
Shadre Hurst
G
52
LJ Martin
RB
77
Ben Roberts
LB
83
Amare Thomas
WR
85
Trey White
Edge
87
Terrance Carter Jr.
TE
93
Jackson Bennee
S
Read more about the top 100 players in college football here.
Baylor Bears
2025 record: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)
Location: Waco, Texas
Odds to make the CFP: 5.3%
Odds to win the Big 12: 2%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 55th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? About the same.
Pedigree: It’s been an up-and-down six seasons for head coach Dave Aranda since he took over for Matt Rhule in 2020. The 2021 team went 12-2, winning the Big 12 title game and the Sugar Bowl, and the 2024 squad won eight games. But there’s been no consistency under Aranda, who posted a losing record his other four seasons at the helm and is squarely on the hot seat.
Why they’re interesting: Former five-star recruit and Florida transfer quarterback DJ Lagway is an intriguing change-of-scenery storyline, and Aranda could be a midseason firing candidate if the team gets off to a slow start.
Who is the coach? Aranda, 49, rose up the coaching ranks as a star defensive coordinator at Wisconsin and LSU. He looked destined for the same ascendance as a head coach after the 2021 season at Baylor, but with fans growing restless and a new athletic director in place, Aranda needs to at least reach bowl eligibility — and probably more — to keep his job. He’s 36-37 overall.
Who is the QB? Despite brief flashes, Lagway (No. 42 in QB Tiers) has yet to live up to his five-star billing after two seasons at Florida in which he completed 62 percent of his passes with 28 touchdowns to 23 interceptions. He comes to Baylor as a legacy recruit, the son of former Bears running back Derek Lagway Sr., and replaces the productive Sawyer Robertson, who led the Big 12 in passing yards. Both sides are hoping a refresh can unlock Lagway’s high-ceiling potential.
Key player: Fourth-year running back Dawson Pendergrass was Baylor’s second leading rusher in 2024 (671 yards, 6 TDs), but a preseason foot injury sidelined him for all of 2025. Pendergrass is back healthy with a chip on his shoulder and a chance to be the Bears’ lead back.
Game to circle: Sept. 5 vs Auburn. The Bears open the season with a neutral-site showcase against the Tigers in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Auburn got the better of Baylor in Waco in last year’s season opener.
— Justin Williams
Baylor QB DJ Lagway threw for 4,179 yards and 28 TDs in two seasons at Florida. (Raymond Carlin III / Imagn Images)
BYU Cougars
2025 record: (12-2, 8-1)
Location: Provo, Utah
Odds to make the CFP: 21.9%
Odds to win the Big 12: 11.5%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 11th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? The same.
Pedigree: One could argue the Cougars are coming off their most accomplished year since the 1984 national championship season. After a decade adrift in college football independence, BYU has found its footing at the Power 4 level with back-to-back double-digit-win seasons, including a berth in last year’s Big 12 title game. Since 2020, BYU has won at least 10 games four times.
Why they’re interesting: Not everything from previous seasons carries over, but BYU had six come-from-behind victories in 2025 with a freshman quarterback; five of them were double-digit deficits. Now, conventional wisdom points to a formerly green QB dealing with that in Year 1 will only make BYU more versed in the art of adversity. Let’s see if that’s the case in 2026.
Who is the coach? The coaching carousel had a very brief layover in Provo. Penn State nearly snatched BYU alumnus Kalani Sitake after talks between the two sides intensified to the point of a near-deal. But Sitake stayed, earning significant added money for himself, his coaching staff and NIL endeavors. The Cookie Man was determined to help make it happen.
Who is the QB? The QB with both the name and the number that attracts immediate attention, Bear Bachmeier (No. 30 in QB Tiers) was impressive as a freshman signal-caller leading a Playoff-caliber roster in 2025. Can he elevate in 2026? He utilized his 6-2, 230-pound frame in the run game often, accounting for 11 rushing TDs. But with a less-decorated receiving corps in 2026, Bachmeier’s downfield passing threat must improve.
Key player: A solid running back is a quarterback’s best friend. Senior LJ Martin returned to Provo for his senior year after a breakout season in which he earned the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year award with 1,305 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns.
Game to circle: Oct. 17 vs. Notre Dame. You thought I’d pick Utah, but getting a Playoff-ready Fighting Irish team at LaVell Edwards Stadium midway through the season is the perfect measuring stick for this team.
— Christopher Kamrani
Top 10 Big 12 QBs
RankPlayerTeamTier
6
Drew Mestemaker
1
10
Noah Fifita
2
22
Devon Dampier
3
28
Conner Weigman
3
30
Bear Bachmeier
3
35
Will Hammond
4
37
Avery Johnson
4
38
Jaden Craig
4
40
Cutter Boley
4
42
DJ Lagway
4
Read our July ranking of all 138 projected FBS starting quarterbacks here.
Cincinnati Bearcats
2025 record: 7-6 (5-4 Big 12)
Location: Cincinnati
Odds to make the CFP: 3.7%
Odds to win the Big 12: 1.1%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 70th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? A little worse.
Pedigree: It’s been a tough transition to the Big 12 since the Bearcats became the first (and only) Group of 5 program to reach the four-team Playoff in 2021. Scott Satterfield has improved his win total each of his three seasons, but the program has won just once after the month of October during his tenure.
Why they’re interesting: It’s a largely revamped roster for the Bearcats, but it should also be one of the best offensive lines in the conference. Despite getting the program back to a bowl game last season for the first time since his hiring, 2026 could be a make-or-break campaign for Satterfield.
Who is the coach? Satterfield, 53, has a reputation as a talented play caller and offensive coach, and the Bearcats led the Big 12 and were in the top 10 nationally in yards per play last season. But the defense has not always been complementary, and Satterfield has plenty of fans to still win over. He’s 15-22 overall and 9-18 in Big 12 play with Cincinnati.
Who is the QB? JC French IV transferred in from Georgia Southern after Cincinnati lost Brendan Sorsby to Texas Tech. French (No. 79 in QB Tiers) doesn’t have the size and arm strength of his predecessor, but he’s an experienced player whose 5,882 yards over three seasons are the most in Georgia Southern program history, along with 38 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.
Key player: Left tackle Joe Cotton and left guard Evan Tengesdahl (No. 88 on the Freaks List) were both starters on a Joe Moore Award semifinalist line in 2025, with Tengesdahl earning All-America honors. They will need to protect French and give him time to operate with a largely new set of skill position players.
Game to circle: Oct. 24 vs Texas Tech. No return for Sorsby after all after admitted gambling infractions ended his college career, but the saga sparked plenty of animosity between the two fan bases.
— Justin Williams
Colorado Buffaloes
2025 record: 3-9 (1-8 Big 12)
Location: Boulder, Colo.
Odds to make the CFP: 1.1%
Odds to win the Big 12: 0.4%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 77th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year: Better, although they can’t be much worse.
Pedigree: Colorado won a national title and had four top-10 finishes in the 1990s but has been the definition of mediocre since. The Buffs have had losing seasons in 17 of the past 20 years and only twice in that stretch finished in the Top 25.
Why they’re interesting: If nothing else, Deion Sanders has made them nationally relevant. It’s never boring, and he did back up a lot of the hype by taking over a one-win program and making the Buffaloes respectable by Year 2, including developing generational talent two-way Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. Sanders dealt with bladder cancer before last season and underwent surgery. He had been away from his team for three months in the offseason and lost a lot of weight and his energy. After going 3-9, Sanders replaced both coordinators and added a lot of experienced players in the portal.
Who is the coach? The 58-year-old Sanders had a wild three-year run in Boulder bookending two 1-8 seasons in Big 12 play around going 7-2 in 2024. A lot of observers are surprised he decided to stay with the Buffs after his sons and Hunter departed after the 2024 season, especially given his health issues. Whether this reboot goes as well as his first one in Boulder remains to be seen, but the coach is excited about it.
Who is the QB: JuJu Lewis (No. 49 in QB Tiers). The 18-year-old sophomore graduated high school a year early and played in four games last year, starting two as the Buffs rotated three QBs. The 6-1, 185-pounder completed 52 of 94 passes for 589 yards and four TDs and zero INTs in 2025. Lewis isn’t a dynamic runner, but his arm talent made him a four-star recruit.
Key player: Running back DeKalon Taylor. The Buffs finished last in the nation in rushing in Sanders’ first two seasons and ranked No. 104 last year. New OC Brennan Marion’s Go-Go offense finished No. 7 in rushing in his second season at UNLV after ranking No. 44 in his debut. In Taylor, a 5-8, 180-pound transfer from FCS Incarnate Word who missed most of last season with injury, the Buffs have a dynamic all-around back who should complement Alabama transfer Richard Young, a bigger back. “He’s a 4.3 (40) guy,” Marion said of Taylor. “He’s like a Darren Sproles type.”
Game to circle: Sept. 19 at Northwestern. The Buffs’ Big 12 schedule didn’t break so well; they don’t face Iowa State and Kansas, two schools that figure to be near the bottom. They open at a Georgia Tech team that just won nine games. But the Wildcats went 11-14 the past two seasons. If Colorado hopes to become a bowl team, it needs to win this one.
— Bruce Feldman
Big 12’s Most Freakish Athletes
RankPlayerTeamPosition
62
Shadre Hurst
G
63
Ben Roberts
LB
67
Justin Bowick
WR
74
Kari Ashley
TE
85
Alexander Doost
G
88
Evan Tengesdahl
G
Read Bruce Feldman’s annual Freaks List here
Houston Cougars
2025 record: 10-3 (6-3 Big 12)
Location: Houston
Odds to make the CFP: 10.9%
Odds to win the Big 12: 4%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 19th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? After a top-four finish in the Big 12, there is potential to contend in a similar fashion.
Pedigree: Houston’s win-loss record looks like a semi-circle with 12 wins in 2021, 10 in 2025 and 16 combined victories in the middle three seasons. A win against LSU in the Texas Bowl last season capped a strong turnaround after a pair of 4-8 seasons. The Cougars are now seeking back-to-back ranked finishes for the first time since the prolific Andre Ware/David Klingler teams of 1988-90.
Why they’re interesting: Now in their third Big 12 campaign, the Cougars look like a squad capable of competing against power-conference teams. Coach Willie Fritz has elevated the talent through traditional recruiting, retention and the portal. Landing the nation’s No. 1 prospect, quarterback Keisean Henderson, was a real coup.
Who is the coach? Everywhere Fritz has coached has become better almost instantaneously. That’s from junior college to Division II to FCS to taking Tulane to a Cotton Bowl win to boosting the Cougars to a No. 19 final ranking last year. Fritz, 66, owns a 251-129-1 career record in 32 seasons.
Who is the QB? Conner Weigman (No. 28 in QB Tiers) returns after a strong fourth year in which he threw for 2,705 yards and 25 touchdowns while running for 700 and 11 scores in his Houston debut after transferring from Texas A&M. Henderson should also see time as a freshman.
Key player: Slot receiver Amare Thomas returns after earning first-team All-Big 12 honors. Thomas caught 67 passes for 966 yards and 12 TDs last fall has a knack for making contested catches.
Game to circle: Sept. 18 at Texas Tech. The two Texas schools have built a basketball rivalry, and it has potential to spill into football. They open Big 12 play in a Friday night showdown that has championship implications.
— Scott Dochterman
Iowa State Cyclones
2025 record: 8-4 (5-4 Big 12)
Location: Ames, Iowa
Odds to make the CFP: 1.5%
Odds to win the Big 12: 0.5%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 98th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? Worse. It’s an obvious rebuilding season.
Pedigree: The Cyclones enjoyed their greatest era under Matt Campbell, who guided them to bowl eligibility in eight of the last nine years and two Big 12 title-game appearances. Last year in Campbell’s final season before leaving for Penn State, Iowa State finished 8-4 but turned down a bowl appearance. The program has four all-time ranked finishes, and two of them came under Campbell in 2020 and ’24. The Cyclones are still searching for their first conference championship in more than a century.
Why they’re interesting: Iowa State flipped over its roster to make it almost unrecognizable from 2025. The Cyclones brought in 84 new players and lost at least 55 players, including 36 to Power 4 rosters. Only three likely starters on each side of the ball return from 2025, and they combined for four total starts.
Who is the coach? Jimmy Rogers, 39, takes over his third different program over the last three seasons. A year ago, Rogers guided an overhauled Washington State roster to a 6-6 mark and near upsets of Ole Miss and Virginia. In 2023, Rogers led South Dakota State to an FCS crown and took the Jackrabbits to the semifinals in 2024.
Who is the QB? Jaylen Raynor (No. 50 in QB Tiers) transferred from Arkansas State, where he threw for 3,361 yards and 19 touchdowns while rushing for 423 yards and seven scores. He had 305 yards of total offense for Arkansas State in its 24-16 loss at Iowa State last fall. With the massive overhaul following Campbell’s departure, Raynor is indispensable in ISU’s transitional period as both a dual-threat weapon and a leader.
Key player: Outside of Raynor, running back Aiden Flora might be the Cyclones’ most indispensable player. A former walk-on, Flora was named second-team All-Big 12 return specialist last season. With Iowa State’s top two running backs off to other schools, Flora is the likely starter but it’s not by default. He’s had a terrific training camp.
Game to circle: Nov. 28 vs. Kansas State. Both schools have new coaches but enter the season with different trajectories. It marks the 110th consecutive season the ag schools will face off in a series known as Farmageddon, but they’re slated to cycle off one another’s schedule in 2027.
— Scott Dochterman
Top Big 12 Transfer Additions
RankPlayerFormer TeamPosition
5
North Texas
QB
10
North Texas
RB
15
California
LB
20
Wake Forest
DL
28
Oklahoma State
Edge
30
Tulane
G
34
Boston College
WR
35
Florida
QB
36
Colorado
WR
42
Kansas State
LB
Read our May ranking of the top 100 transfers here.
Kansas Jayhawks
2025 record: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)
Location: Lawrence, Kan.
Odds to make the CFP: 4.7%
Odds to win the Big 12: 1.7%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 74th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? About the same.
Pedigree: Kansas has only eight all-time Top 25 finishes, hasn’t won a conference championship since 1968 and bottomed out in the 2010s as the nation’s worst power program. But the Jayhawks have climbed to respectability over the past four seasons, even if they slipped back under .500 each of the past two years.
Why they’re interesting: Teams rarely lose decorated quarterbacks and get better, which means the Jayhawks should be due for a regression with No. 2 all-time leading passer Jalon Daniels gone. Then again, Lance Leipold has historically been successful working alongside offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who has rejoined Leipold’s staff after a stint at Penn State. Kansas also added Colorado/Kansas State transfer Dylan Edwards (1,072 career rushing yards) at running back.
Who is the coach? Leipold, 62, is quietly one of the game’s most successful coaches. He built a Division III dynasty at Wisconsin-Whitewater with six national championships in eight seasons, helped Buffalo finish ranked in 2020 and resuscitated Kansas, including nine wins in 2023.
Who is the QB? Cole Ballard (No. 108 in QB Tiers) is the presumptive favorite after appearing in 15 games over his previous three seasons with the Jayhawks. The other homegrown veteran is Isaiah Marshall, who started once last season and finished the year with 160 rushing yards on 15 carries. Option 3 is Rice transfer Chase Jenkins, a dual-threat talent who set an Owls record by completing 69 percent of his passes last season.
Key player: Defensive end Leroy Harris III was an honorable mention All-Big 12 performer after leading the Jayhawks with 4.5 sacks and eight pass breakups. There’s an even higher ceiling for Harris, who transferred up from Chattanooga last season.
Game to circle: Sept. 19 vs. Arizona State. The Union Jack Classic pitches this as a matchup of “two powerhouse teams with rich traditions.” Um, OK. Regardless, the Jayhawks’ conference opener takes place at London’s Wembley Stadium. The odd Week 3 setting will show us what we can expect from KU.
— Matt Baker
Former Kansas State QB Collin Klein is back in Manhattan as head coach. (Raymond Carlin III / Imagn Images)
Kansas State Wildcats
2025 record: 6-6 (5-4 Big 12)
Location: Manhattan, Kan.
Odds to make the CFP: 10.9%
Odds to win the Big 12: 4%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 46th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? The talent is akin to a year ago, but the record will likely look better against a schedule that avoids Big 12 heavyweights Texas Tech, BYU and Utah.
Pedigree: Historically one of the worst programs in the FBS through the 1980s, Kansas State long ago put away doormat status after breaking through under Bill Snyder. Even with just one 10-win season in the past 13 years, the Wildcats’ six wins last year made them bowl eligible for the fifth consecutive year and 14th out of 16. The school turned down a postseason opportunity in the wake of Chris Klieman’s retirement last year.
Why they’re interesting: The new coach, Collin Klein, at 36, is just months older than Will Stein of Kentucky and Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham, the youngest Power 4 head coaches. After two years at Texas A&M as the play caller for Mike Elko, Klein plucked an Aggie, Jordan Peterson, to run the defense. Can they bring a bit of the A&M magic from 2025 to Manhattan?
Who is the coach? Klein finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting as a K-State QB in 2012. He was an accomplished runner, and his offenses at K-State in 2022 and ’23 and for the past two seasons at Texas A&M featured physicality. Expect him to bring that style back to the Wildcats after they failed to produce a 1,000-yard back last year for the first time since 2020.
Who is the QB? Senior Avery Johnson (No. 37 in QB Tiers) is a former Klein recruit and pupil. Johnson started all 25 games over the past two years and set a K-State record with 25 touchdown passes in 2024. He brings savvy and an athletic skill set.
Key player: Senior Garrett Oakley has caught 13 touchdowns, the school record by a tight end. He’s a weapon, especially when paired at the position with sophomore Linkon Cure, an elite athlete.
Game to circle: Kansas on Oct. 17 in Manhattan. K-State has won 17 consecutively in this rivalry and would like to keep the streak going under Klein.
— Mitch Sherman
Oklahoma State Cowboys
2025 record: 1-11 (0-9 Big 12)
Location: Stillwater, Okla.
Odds to make the CFP: 2.3%
Odds to win the Big 12: 0.8%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 22nd
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? There is not a team better positioned to improve after it all came crashing down around Mike Gundy.
Pedigree: The Cowboys had been one of the most consistent programs in the country for most of Gundy’s 21-year tenure, with 18 straight winning seasons and eight double-digit-victory seasons. The end was ugly with four total wins in the past two years, but there is no reason the Cowboys shouldn’t be able to get into the upper half of the Big 12 regularly.
Why they’re interesting: The most massive roster turnover in the Power 4, OSU features 89 new players. New coach Eric Morris brought in 60 transfers, about a third from his North Texas team that went 12-2 last season, including the Mean Green’s star quarterback (Drew Mestemaker), leading receiver (Wyatt Young) and leading rusher (Caleb Hawkins). Could Oklahoma State go from worst team in the Power 4 to Big 12 title game contender?
Who is the coach? Morris, 40, is from the Mike Leach coaching tree and 46-34 in six seasons as a Division I head coach. He has developed a reputation for having a keen eye for quarterbacks, landing Patrick Mahomes as offensive coordinator at Texas Tech and then Cam Ward while head coach at FCS Incarnate Word.
Who is the QB? Mestemaker is Morris’ latest find. He led the nation in yards passing (4,379 yards) and yards per attempt (9.5) as a sophomore at North Texas last season. It’s been a remarkable rise — to No. 6 in QB Tiers — from not starting any varsity games at quarterback in high school to entering his third college season as a player NFL scouts are eyeing as a potential first-round draft pick.
Key player: Defensive end James Williams had a nice season at Nebraska in 2024, transferred to Florida State in 2025 and wasn’t as effective, but could emerge as Oklahoma State’s best pass rusher.
Game to circle: Oct. 24 vs. Colorado. Homecoming to start the back half of the season against Coach Prime’s Buffs should be a good gauge of how Year 1 is going for Morris. The Cowboys have only six home games and need to get the winnable ones.
— Ralph D. Russo
TCU Horned Frogs
2025 record: 9-4 (5-4 Big 12)
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Odds to make the CFP: 8.2%
Odds to win the Big 12: 2.8%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 27th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? The same.
Pedigree: TCU has been one of the 21st century’s most consistent winners while moving up conferences. The Horned Frogs have won nine games in each of the past two seasons and reached the national championship game in 2022. After decades adrift, they’ve reached 23 bowl games since 1998, with seven top-10 finishes, though they haven’t won a conference championship since 2014.
Why they’re interesting: The Horned Frogs have shown a high ceiling, with a Rose Bowl win and No. 2 final ranking in 2010, a No. 3 finish in 2014 and the national title game a few years ago. They haven’t returned to that form in the past few years, but TCU has the potential to break through, and the Big 12 could be more open this year.
Who is the coach? Sonny Dykes, 56, enters his fifth season after coming across town from SMU. The son of former Texas Tech coach Spike Dykes, Sonny took TCU to the national championship game and has posted a winning record in six of his last seven seasons as a head coach, but he’s won 10 games only twice in 15 seasons at TCU, SMU, Cal and Louisiana Tech.
Who is the QB? After losing Josh Hoover to Indiana, TCU added Harvard transfer Jaden Craig (No. 38 in QB Tiers), who threw for more than 6,000 yards with a 52-12 TD-INT ratio in the Ivy League. At 6-3, 230 pounds, he has prototypical size and has high expectations.
Key player: Safety Jamel Johnson will anchor the defense after racking up five interceptions and 96 tackles a year ago. He’s a preseason All-Big 12 honoree, and on a defense that must replace much of its linebackers and cornerbacks, Johnson will be asked to shoulder the load.
Game to circle: Nov. 26 at Texas Tech. These two teams could be playing for a place in the Big 12 championship game.
— Chris Vannini
Sonny Dykes is 36-17 in four seasons as head coach at TCU. (Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)
Texas Tech Red Raiders
2025 record: 12-2 (8-1 Big 12)
Location: Lubbock, Texas
Odds to make the CFP: 71.6%
Odds to win the Big 12: 55%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 9th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? Worse, but still plenty good enough to win the Big 12.
Pedigree: The Red Raiders have moved into an entirely new neighborhood in college football after spending most of the post-Mike Leach era as a second-tier Big 12 team. Texas Tech is a big spender in the NIL era. The result was its first Big 12 title, first AP top-10 finish and first Playoff appearance last year.
Why they’re interesting: You might have heard the Red Raiders landed one of the most highly sought-after transfers in quarterback Brendan Sorsby, only for him to be declared ineligible for violating NCAA gambling rules. The whole ordeal put Texas Tech at odds with the Big 12, its conference rivals and just about the entirety of college sports. There is a whole lot of “us against them” going on in Lubbock.
Who is the coach? Joey McGuire’s job changed drastically in the past couple of seasons. The former Texas high school coach hired to ignite in-state recruiting oversees a program funded to compete nationally on the field, in recruiting and in the transfer portal. He is 35-18 in four seasons at Texas Tech. Winning the Big 12 is expected and McGuire, 55, will likely be judged on how the Red Raiders do against CFP-caliber opposition.
Who is the QB? Red Raiders coaches and staff insist that if Will Hammond, last year’s promising No. 2 behind Behren Morten, had been healthy going into the offseason, they would not have gone after Sorsby. Hammond played in eight games last season, throwing seven touchdowns and running for five before tearing his ACL. He’s expected to be ready to play Week 1.
Key player: Edge Adam Trick had 8.5 sacks last season for Miami (Ohio) and will be counted on along with San Diego State transfer Trey White to help replace the dominant pass-rush duo of David Bailey and Romello Height.
Game to circle: The Big 12 opener Week 3 at home against Houston has already received a lot of attention because Tech booster and board chair Cody Campbell complained about it being moved to Friday night. An early Big 12 test on an accommodating schedule.
— Ralph D. Russo
UCF Knights
2025 record: 5-7 (2-7 Big 12)
Location: Orlando, Fla.
Odds to make the CFP: 3.7%
Odds to win the Big 12: 1.4%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 69th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? About the same.
Pedigree: This program, which debuted as an FBS independent in 1996, found big success under George O’Leary and peaked with Scott Frost’s 13-0 season and claimed national title in 2017. So far, Big 12 membership hasn’t been kind — UCF is 15-22, 7-20 in conference play, in three seasons.
Why they’re interesting: Frost’s attempt to re-establish himself as a head coach is the main story line here. One 5-7 season in his return to UCF shouldn’t have any minds made up, but the need for an emphatic response feels urgent.
Who is the coach? Frost, a two-time national champion as a quarterback at Nebraska, returned home to Lincoln after that 13-0 season. But he had been a head coach for only two seasons. It didn’t go well at Nebraska (16-31, fired three games into his fifth season). It didn’t go as well as hoped in Frost’s latest “return home,” after a season as a Los Angeles Rams analyst. The 51-year-old is 40-45 with questions persisting.
Who is the QB? Reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year Alonza Barnett III (No. 43 in QB Tiers) transferred from James Madison to UCF after throwing for 2,806 yards and 23 touchdowns with eight picks, while running for 589 and 15 touchdowns last season for the Dukes in their run to the CFP. Oh, and he spent his first two seasons under the tutelage of Curt Cignetti. That has to mean something, right?
Key player: Massive defensive tackle Horace Lockett (6-6, 355) was a significant presence last season after transferring from Georgia Tech, but a pectoral injury ended his season after four games. Then he got into the portal, but he ended up back at UCF. A full season of Lockett could be (literally and figuratively) huge.
Game to circle: BYU, the homecoming opponent? That seems aggressive, but it’s Oct. 24 and that’s the only Saturday home game in the month. It’s also the most attractive home game on the schedule and an opportunity for an upset that would make people notice.
— Joe Rexrode
Utah Utes
2025 record: 11-2 (7-2 Big 12)
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Odds to make the CFP: 15.9%
Odds to win the Big 12: 7%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 26th
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? Slightly worse.
Pedigree: The Utes have been one of the most consistent teams this century, with 19 bowl games since Urban Meyer arrived in 2003, including undefeated seasons in 2004 and 2008 and three top-15 finishes in the past five years. But this season brings major change with the departure of head coach Kyle Whittingham, who replaced Meyer in 2005. Longtime assistant Morgan Scalley takes over a program that still has plenty of pieces in place and a favorable schedule to make a Big 12 championship run.
Why they’re interesting: It’s a new era. After 21 seasons in charge, Whittingham was somewhat nudged out, but he ended up at Michigan after Sherrone Moore’s dramatic firing, and Whittingham took some key Utah pieces with him, including offensive coordinator Jason Beck and star defensive end John Henry Daley. What will Utah look like under Scalley, and does Whittingham’s resurfacing put more pressure on the Utes to win?
Who is the coach? Scalley, 46, was the 2004 Mountain West co-Defensive Player of the Year for the Utes, and he spent 2006-25 on Whittingham’s staff, moving up from an administrative assistant to defensive coordinator to head coach in waiting.
Who is the QB? Devon Dampier (No. 22 in QB Tiers) was terrific in his first season transferring from New Mexico, with 34 total touchdowns and five interceptions, adding up to 3,325 total yards. He’ll have a new offensive coordinator in Kevin McGiven, who spent 2025 at Utah State, but the Utes had one of the best offenses in the country last year and could again.
Key player: Montana State offensive tackle transfer Cedric Jefferson highlights a concern for this year: The entire starting offensive and defensive lines are new, including losing two first-round picks on the offensive line. Utah was always strong in the trenches under Whittingham, and the Utes need to find difference-makers there. The 6-foot-5 Jefferson could anchor a new offensive line.
Game to circle: Nov. 7 vs. BYU. The Holy War is one of college football’s best rivalries, and last year’s game saw BYU pull out a three-point victory en route to a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. The game this year could once again determine who plays for the conference title.
— Chris Vannini
West Virginia Mountaineers
2025 record: 4-8 (2-7 Big 12)
Location: Morgantown, W. Va.
Odds to make the CFP: 1.5%
Odds to win the Big 12: 0.5%
The Athletic 138 ranking: 63rd
Will they be better, worse or the same this year? Almost certainly better, perhaps considerably better.
Pedigree: West Virginia has been reliably fielding bowl teams since the ’80s, beginning with longtime coach Don Nehlen, and catapulted to Big East titles and BCS bowls in the 2000s. But the Mountaineers have rarely escaped mediocrity since joining the Big 12 in 2012, surpassing six wins just once since 2019.
Why they’re interesting: It’s the second season of Rich Rodriguez’s second tenure in Morgantown, and Mountaineers fans hope history will repeat itself now that he’s had a chance to remake the roster. Back in his first stint, which began in 2001, West Virginia improved from 3-8 in Year 1 to 9-4 in Year 2.
Who is the coach? Rodriguez, now 63, was one of the early pioneers of the spread-to-run offense. His mid-2000s West Virginia teams with quarterback Pat White and running back Steve Slaton reached two BCS bowls and nearly made the 2007 national championship game. After he flamed out at Michigan (2008-10), going 15-22, he resurrected his career by taking Arizona (2012-17) to a Pac-12 title game and Jacksonville State (2022-24) to two conference titles.
Who is the QB? After shuffling through four starting QBs last season, Rodriguez brought in Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. (No. 72 in QB Tiers), the type of dual-threat weapon synonymous with his offenses. In five career starts (four as a freshman), Hawkins showed an ability to extend plays and convert third and fourth downs but struggled at times with accuracy and turnovers. Sophomore Scotty Fox Jr., who made six starts last season, will compete for the job.
Key player: New running back Cam Cook was the nation’s leading rusher last season (1,659 yards, 16 TDs) while at Jacksonville State, after spending his first two seasons at TCU. Rodriguez (who did not coach Cook at Jax State) calls him the “bell cow” at running back.
Game to circle: Sept. 26 vs. Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers’ Big 12 opener comes against the recharged Cowboys, led by star QB Drew Mestemaker. Maybe we get a 48-45 shootout.
— Stewart Mandel