WASHINGTON — A new poll shows Democrats are leading in three heavily Hispanic congressional districts in South Texas that may determine control of the U.S. House in November. The results suggest that some Hispanic voters might be returning to the Democratic Party after shifting to the GOP in recent elections.

President Donald Trump is back in the White House, in part, because of Hispanic voters like the ones who live in three South Texas congressional districts. But a new Texas Southern University poll suggests that support is slipping and dragging down Republicans on the ballot this November.

“Donald Trump is viewed in a more negative way by many of these voters who don’t believe that he’s delivered on his promises of economic prosperity, which is one of the main reasons why they voted for him back in 2024,” said one pollster, Mark Jones, a professor of political science at Rice University.  

The poll of likely voters found incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar leading Republican Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina 45% to 34% in the 28th Congressional District. In the poll, Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido was ahead of Republican U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz 50% to 45% in the 15th Congressional District. And Democratic U.S. Rep. Vicente Gonzalez led Republican Eric Flores 45% to 42% in the 34th Congressional District. 

The poll was taken Aug. 18 through Aug. 22 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.7% to 4%.

“Turnout in presidential elections is much higher than in midterm elections, and there’s an enthusiasm gap where Democratic voters are much more likely to want to turn out and many of the Trump supporters from back in 2024 are simply going to stay home this November and not cast a ballot,” Jones said. 

Both parties are targeting the three districts in the battle for control of the U.S. House.

Trump did better than expected in the three districts two years ago, mirroring gains he made nationally among Hispanic voters. But the Cameron County Democratic Party said what happened in South Texas in 2024 was an anomaly and believes voters will support the Democratic candidates. 

“They see the price of gas, they see the price of food, they see their hopes and dreams slipping further and further away, and they know that if they come together with their friends and neighbors, they can do something about it,” Jared Hockema, chair of the Cameron County Democratic Party, told Spectrum News. 

In a statement to Spectrum News, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Madison Andrus said, “Texas Republicans have tied themselves to an unpopular agenda that’s hurting South Texas’ working families. Grocery bills are higher, gas prices are higher, health care costs are higher, and now Republicans are selling out Texas ranchers in a disastrous beef import deal. Voters are sick and tired of the failures and broken promises. This November, they’re ready to elect Democrats who will actually do the work to make life more affordable for South Texas.” 

The chair of the Cameron County Republican Party voiced confidence in his party’s candidates, saying the region has long held conservative values. 

“If you look at Mr. Trump and his history and what he’s been able to deliver is really key in terms of trying to see how successful he’s been to help us… the strength and the stewardship of our communities, our country, as well as our area here in South Texas, will prove true that we’re on the right track,” Cameron County Republican Party Chair Jim Birschbach told Spectrum News. 

In a statement to Spectrum News, National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Christian Martinez said, “Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz, Tano Tijerina and Eric Flores are strong candidates with clear paths to victory, and they make the choice for voter’s obvious: Republicans delivered No Tax on Tips, No Tax on Overtime, historic investments in rural health care, and a secure border. Meanwhile, Democrats voted against working families and continue to embrace a socialist agenda that would destroy South Texas.”

Not only did Trump flip many of the counties in South Texas two years ago, two of the three congressional districts were targeted in Texas’ controversial mid-decade redistricting plan. They were redrawn to favor Republicans.