Texas Senate race could become nation’s most expensive as Democrats eye upset

(TNND) — President Donald Trump attended a Texas fundraiser for the Republican National Committee this week that was expected to benefit Ken Paxton, the GOP candidate in an increasingly tight U.S. Senate race in what has long been a Republican stronghold.

But Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said a “perfect storm” has created a legitimate opening for Democrats to flip the Texas seat – and, with it, potentially control of the Senate itself.

Paxton, the state’s attorney general, is a “deeply flawed” candidate who has yet to show the willingness or ability to campaign as hard as his opponent, Jones said.

Paxton has faced years of legal and ethical controversies, including a resolved securities-fraud case and a 2023 impeachment – in which he was ultimately acquitted – over multiple accusations, including that he abused his office for private gain.

Meanwhile, Jones said Republicans across the country, including in Texas, are feeling a drag from Trump’s underwater popularity.

Democrat James Talarico, a state representative, has a real shot of becoming Texas’ next U.S. senator.

“And so, for Democrats, simply being in the mix creates a great deal of optimism and enthusiasm,” said Jones, who described Texas Democrats as the Washington Generals playing against the Harlem Globetrotters, destined to lose.

No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.

The Cook Political Report shifted Texas into its toss-up category last week, from a race considered to lean Republican.

Texas is now one of six toss-ups among Senate races this midterm, with Democrats needing to flip four Republican-held seats to gain control.

If Democrats keep Michigan and flip North Carolina, as expected, they’ll need just three more wins in seats currently held by Republicans.

Maine is probably the next most likely pickup for Democrats, but now Texas is right there in the mix, along with Iowa, Alaska and Ohio.

“This is arguably going to be the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country this year,” Jones said.

With 20 media markets, including Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston in the top 10, Jones said running a statewide political ad campaign in Texas is more expensive than running statewide campaigns in Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Maine combined.

AdImpact, an ad-tracking service, predicted in June that the Senate race in Texas would be the nation’s most expensive. AdImpact projected a whopping $446 million would be spent on TV, radio, websites and more to get either Paxton or Talarico elected.

OpenSecrets, a research organization tracking money in politics, shows Talarico with a direct fundraising advantage over Paxton this cycle. However, OpenSecrets director of insights Brendan Glavin said the big outside money has yet to start flowing into Texas.

Glavin also expressed skepticism that spending in Texas will rise above some other key races like Maine, Michigan and even Iowa.

Glavin said outside groups have only spent around $4 million during the general election portion of the Senate race in Texas so far.

Outside groups, such as political action committees, want to make sure they’re spending their money with the most impact. And he said they are likely to take a “wait-and-see” approach to the Texas race.

“I think if we get to October, and people are really starting to believe that this race really is going to be very close and be a toss-up, then you will see a lot of money start to pour in for sure,” he said.

Jones said Republicans wouldn’t find themselves needing to spend so much money in Texas had incumbent GOP Sen. John Cornyn won the runoff against Trump-supported Paxton. Jones views Cornyn as a stronger general election candidate, given Paxton’s “baggage.”

Meanwhile, Jones said Republican and independent voters will have to decide if Paxton’s controversies are enough to stop them from voting for the candidate who’ll bring the more conservative voting record to the Senate.

And Jones said Democrats have hard strategic calculations to make about where their money will make the most impact. That might be with Talarico in Texas, but Jones said many of those decisions won’t come until at least next month.