National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
A forecast of heavy rainfall risks on Sept. 1, 2026, from the National Weather Service.
A tropical disturbance in the Gulf could develop into a tropical depression — or even a tropical storm — by Tuesday, the National Weather Service predicts, with several inches of rain falling in southeast Texas.
The storm, labeled Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center, is expected to bring heavy rainfall by Tuesday morning which will continue throughout the day. Parts of southeast Texas, including Houston, are at a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Tuesday and Wednesday, without surrounding areas at a marginal risk.
“There is a possibility it could become a tropical storm before it makes landfall,” Brian Kyle, an NWS meteorologist, said. “It should be a short lived one if it does intensify enough.”
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Scattered thunderstorms are expected to begin Monday night, with increased storms throughout the day Tuesday. There could be flash flooding, with NWS predicting rainfall rates exceeding 3-4 inches per hour during the heaviest downpours.
There could also be isolated areas with higher total rainfall amounts ranging from 6-9 inches. Houston could see up to 3 inches, and Galveston could see up to 4 inches, according to NWS.
NWS Houston/Galveston
A forecast of chances for tropical storm force winds on Sept. 1, 2026, from the National Weather Service.
There’s a possibility of tropical storm force winds along southeast Texas counties beginning Tuesday morning, though the overall wind threat for the state remains low. Houston has a 9% chance of seeing tropical storm force winds, and Galveston has a 17% chance. By contrast, Port Arthur and Beaumont have a 46% chance and a 31% chance, respectively, of tropical storm force winds.
“With any tropical system, you could get some gusty winds, especially near the coast and offshore,” Kyle said. “For those folks further inland, metro area and northward we are looking more of a rainfall impact,” said Kyle.
If the system does develop into a named storm it would be called Edouard. It would likely have a short lifespan before crossing over land.