The onset of fall brings us closer to a new year, when retirees could see changes in Social Security payments as the administration finalizes its cost-of-living (COLA) adjustment for 2027.

Here’s what Texans can expect, according to recent forecasts.

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), which provides a COLA watch on its website, revealed its most recent prediction on Friday, September 11. On its website, it lists the prediction at 3.3%, which would amount to an additional $67.90 on average in benefit checks per month. This number is based on the SSA’s most recent statistical snapshot, issued that same Friday (see the average monthly benefit in the retirement benefits category).

The AARP, a nonpartisan organization serving Americans ages 50 and up, along with their families, estimates the 2027 COLA at 3.6%, which would add approximately $75 to the monthly income of retired workers. The nonprofit says this estimate is “based on the latest consumer price data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Federal Reserve projections of inflation trends for the coming weeks.”

The Social Security Administration (SSA) determines the COLA by comparing the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from July through September of the previous year, when a COLA was determined, to the same third-quarter period of the current year. There is no COLA when there is no increase, according to the SSA.

Per the TSCL, the August CPI-W was 3.5% and the July CPI-W, released last month, was 3.4%.  

The COLA determines the amount of money included in Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments. Its purpose is to ensure recipients can still afford roughly the same number of products and services, even if prices rise, according to the administration’s website.

“Social Security is a promise kept, and the annual cost-of-living adjustment is one way we are working to make sure benefits reflect today’s economic realities and continue to provide a foundation of security,” Social Security Administration Commissioner Frank J. Bisignano said in a blog post. “The cost-of-living adjustment is a vital part of how Social Security delivers on its mission.”

Texans will not know for sure until October, when the SSA has said it will make the official announcement. The AARP states that it typically goes into effect in January of the following year.