Early morning view of the entrance to pedestrian bridges over Buffalo Bayou in Houston’s Buffalo Bayou Park with Autumn colors in background. Houston temperatures will likely start to cool off just before Halloween.
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The official start of fall is approaching, but Houstonians are still wondering when they’ll actually feel it.
The city was under a National Weather Service heat advisory as recently as this week, leaving many residents counting the days until temperatures begin to drop.
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“So far, the first 14 days of the month has been the fifth warmest September on record in the Houston area,” Chad Merrill, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, told Chron. “The average temperature—85.1 degrees.”
Merrill said a low pressure system moving west from Florida is expected to bring “a little cooling relief” to Houstonians this weekend. But when will cooler weather become the norm?
Autumn colors is transforming Memorial Park in Houston, Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017, in Houston. When will Houston get its first taste of fall weather?
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An incoming cold front
Another cold front is expected to move into Texas this week, bringing a brief spell of cooler weather.
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“Looking down the road, we see a bit of a pattern shift starting [this] week and likely continuing through the end of the month, that’s going to bring in some cooler temperatures and also some wetter conditions,” Merrill said. “This heat dome that’s been in place across the southern part of the plains will start to at least weaken a bit and move off towards the east, and away from the Houston area.”
Highs could drop into the mid 80s as opposed to the upper 90s towards the end of September, alongside the chance for some showers. This year, Merrill said the cooler weather will be driven by cloud cover and precipitation rather than fall-like air moving into the region.
“It’ll cool off appreciably, but likely nothing that’s driven by…lower dew points and cooler Canadian air,” Merrill said. “It’s more of a pattern shift where you’re getting more clouds and some precipitation that cools things off a bit.”
The Richardson family Trick-or-Treat on October 31, 2022 in Houston, Texas. AccuWeather’s Chad Merrill forecasts the first cooler stretch in Houston could hit just before Halloween.
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When will fall hit Houston?
While Merrill said fall this year is likely to bring slightly warmer temperatures on average, a longer stretch of real fall-like weather is anticipated towards the end of October.
“Looking at our forecast long term through October and November, there’s going to be much cooler periods arriving, some of that from low pressures bringing more rain,” Merrill said. “Usually what happens is in the wake of these low pressures, it will draw in some drier air…not necessarily like Arctic air, but it’ll feel much more refreshing and behind these cold fronts.”
The shift to cooler weather could arrive just in time for spooky season, as is often the case in Houston.
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“Right around or just before Halloween might be one of the coolest stretches that we see in the Houston area, coming up in October,” Merrill said.
In November, Merrill said temperatures are likely to average out just slightly below average, alongside above-average rainfall.
Few 90-degree days are predicted in Houston for October and November.
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How many more 90-degree days are in store for Houston, and what about El Niño?
Through the end of September, Merrill said Houstonians should expect at least another five or six 90-degree days.
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Once October hits, that’s likely to change, thanks to El Niño.
“Looking at one year that looks similar to what’s happened so far this month would be 1982, which ended up as a very strong El Niño year as well,” Merrill said. “There weren’t very many 90-degree days. There were only like three or four days, and they were towards the beginning of the month.”
In November, if any 90-degree days are recorded at all, it would be towards the very beginning of the month, Merril said.
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