A burst of cold air is moving south toward Texas and should bring a slight respite from the unseasonably hot days that have plagued the Lone Star State for weeks. Most of the state can keep their fall garb tucked away, as the cold air is mostly bringing rainy days and a cooldown of a few degrees. But one forecaster is sparking new hope that the cooler air could reach farther south than initially expected.
For about two weeks, weather watchers have ramped up excitement over the first fall cold front to cross the Texas-Oklahoma border. But hopes were quickly dashed for most Texans as a pesky heat dome held its ground, blocking any northern air from sweeping in.
Finally, forecasters say that the high-pressure heat dome may start to break down as a cold wave moves in.
“The dome of high pressure that has continued to generate well above normal temperatures across North and Central Texas will begin to break down on Saturday as a pair of shortwaves move from west to east across the Central Plains,” the National Weather Service Dallas-Fort Worth office reports, noting these shortwaves will usher in a cold front.
The Texas Panhandle will see the greatest impact and the closest to a temperature plummet. After several afternoons climbing into the 90s, temperatures shouldn’t climb beyond the mid-70s by Tuesday – a nearly 20-degree dip between Friday, September 18, and Monday afternoons.
But this cooler air is accompanied by storm clouds and severe weather threats. The National Weather Service Amarillo office warns that ping–pong-sized hail, 60 mph wind gusts and a very low tornado risk plague the Saturday forecast.
“There is a low chance for severe weather across the central and eastern Panhandles on Saturday. Wind and hail will be the main concerns with hail up to 1.5” and winds up to 60 mph,” the agency said in a statement Friday morning, noting storms are expected to hit between Saturday afternoon and evening.
And those dark clouds linger over the region for days. A 50% to 70% chance of thunderstorms (a “likely” chance, according to the NWS) looms over Texas Panhandle towns through at least Thursday, when the agency’s forecast ends.
There may not be much of a cooldown any further south in the Lone Star State. The NWS Dallas office shows some relief from triple-digit days, with highs dipping slightly toward the mid-90s, but that’s still unseasonably hot this close to October.
It’s essentially the same story even farther south toward San Antonio. But any cooling in both North and South Central Texas is largely due to gray clouds overhead, as forecasters warn of roughly a 20% chance of storms in both areas. Those storms will likely reach the greater Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex by Sunday and Monday, then travel south to San Antonio by Tuesday night.