In a season that has featured plenty of surprises, Week 11 did not have many at the top of the rankings, at least in terms of pure wins and losses. Indiana and Oregon barely survived Big Ten road tests, but survive they did. There was a top 10 team that lost, but BYU was a 10-point underdog at Texas Tech, so the Red Raiders’ convincing win wasn’t technically all that surprising.

As a result, the top of the odds board to win the national title remained mostly the same. Ohio State is still the favorite with +200 odds on BetMGM. The Buckeyes are 9-0 after beating Purdue 34-10 (in a game that was 3-0 Purdue after a quarter).

By surviving at Penn State and being the first team in the country to reach 10 wins, Indiana is viewed as the second-most likely national champion at +600. The close call did not dissuade the sportsbooks’ view of the Hoosiers, which were +700 a week ago.

Texas A&M got a nice surge, moving up from +1100 to +700 with a convincing win at Missouri. The Aggies passed Alabama, which dropped from +700 to +800 after beating LSU 20-9. The Crimson Tide won and covered the spread (barely), but still moved down a bit. Go figure.

Georgia and Notre Dame remain next at +1000.

Indiana didn’t drop with its close call, but Oregon did. The Ducks needed a last-second field goal to win by two at Iowa and dropped to +1500 to win the national title. Oregon is dealing with a number of injuries to receivers, which isn’t helping performance or projection.

As for odds to make the College Football Playoff, Texas A&M joined Ohio State and Indiana as teams that are off the board as far as CFP betting. All three are virtual locks. With undefeated records, those teams are clearly in their own tier for now. Speaking of tiers, let’s break down the CFP contenders into tiers and see what the odds have to say about each team’s chances.

Undefeated teams: Already in
Ohio State
Indiana
Texas A&M

Indiana already has 10 wins, Ohio State is 9-0 with two games against bottom-half Big Ten teams coming up, and Texas A&M is 9-0 with a game against an FCS team still on its schedule. All are off the board, moving on.

One-loss teams looking good
Alabama (-2000)
Georgia (-2000)
Ole Miss (-2000)
Texas Tech (-1100)
Oregon (-500)

The SEC trio is the most likely to make it among this group because they appear to be the most likely to get in with 10-2 records. Alabama has a tough game against Oklahoma this week, but is favored by nearly a touchdown and even without that game would only have to beat Eastern Illinois and Auburn (on the road) to get to 10 wins. It’s not a complete stretch to think Alabama could lose to Oklahoma or Auburn, but both seem unlikely.

Ole Miss needs only to split a home game against Florida (as 16.5-point favorites) and the Egg Bowl at 5-5 Mississippi State to reach 10 wins.

Georgia, 8-1, has a home game against 1-8 Charlotte sandwiched by tough tests against Texas and Georgia Tech. Similar to Alabama, it’s possible Georgia loses one of those, but both would be shocking.

Texas Tech became the clear favorite to win the Big 12 with its win against BYU. The Red Raiders have UCF and West Virginia remaining. Those teams are a combined 3-10 in the Big 12. Tech looks safe.

Oregon squeaked by Iowa and has injuries hampering its passing game. The Ducks’ remaining games are all against teams already bowl-eligible: Minnesota, USC and at Washington. Expecting Minnesota to win in Eugene is a stretch, but the other two are dicier. A 10-2 Oregon team probably still gets in, but it could be tight.

One-loss teams looking less good
Georgia Tech (+220)
BYU (+350)

The Yellow Jackets got some help in the ACC race with fellow contenders Louisville and Virginia losing. Georgia Tech is favored to win the ACC (+200) and has a narrow path to an at-large berth that would require a win vs. Georgia and a loss in the ACC title game as an 11-1 team.

BYU is an interesting case as the least-respected one-loss power conference team. The reality is the Cougars are not viewed as highly as their ranking. BYU is favored by less than a touchdown this week against TCU, and next week’s huge game at Cincinnati figures to be tougher. Austin Mock’s projection model puts the Bearcats as 5-point favorites for that game and only gives BYU a 13 percent chance of finishing 11-1. Would a 10-2 BYU get in? The odds imply some skepticism.

Two-loss team with a good path

The Fighting Irish play at a ranked Pitt team this week, so it’s not that hard to see Notre Dame’s chances getting derailed. However, the Irish are favored by double digits and will be favored by more against Syracuse and Stanford to close out the regular season. There are a lot of two-loss teams that could get in with a 10-2 record. None has an easier remaining schedule than Notre Dame.

Two-loss teams with tough paths
Texas (+200)
Oklahoma (+250)
Utah (+300)
Vanderbilt (+320)
USC (+350)
Miami (+350)
Cincinnati (+600)
Michigan (+675)
Virginia (+750)
Pitt (+800)
Louisville (+1000)

The awkward part about this list is that the teams at the top are the ones with the hardest schedules. Texas has Georgia and Texas A&M still. Oklahoma has to go to Alabama this week. If either team wins out, they will likely be in, and Texas even has a chance to win the SEC. Doing so is the hard part. It’s too early to consider the chaos scenario of a three-loss team in the CFP, but it’s possible the Longhorns and Sooners could make that argument if there are enough losses elsewhere.

Utah will be favored in its last three games (at Baylor, vs. Kansas State, at Kansas), but would have a hard time getting in ahead of BYU, which beat the Utes.

Vanderbilt would have to win at Tennessee in the regular-season finale, a game the Commodores will likely be underdogs in.

USC has a tough Iowa team this week and has to play at Oregon next week. If the Trojans get to 10-2, it’s a good resume, but, like Texas and OU, getting there will be difficult. Same for Michigan, which would have to beat No. 1 Ohio State.

Non-power conference contenders
South Florida (+120)
James Madison (+200)
North Texas (+200)
Tulane (+600)
Memphis (+2500)
Navy (+3000)

After weeks of assuming it would be the American that gets the fifth conference-winner spot in the CFP, James Madison of the Sun Belt has surged in the odds. The American contenders keep beating each other up. The Dukes’ only loss is to a ranked Louisville, and JMU is more likely to win the Sun Belt (-325) than any American contender is to win that conference (USF is the favorite at even money).

South Florida plays at Navy this week.