Showers could return to San Antonio this week as forecasters monitor a potential tropical storm that may develop in the Gulf.
The San Antonio/Austin office of the National Weather Service (NWS) said in a Monday, October 5, update that it identified a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche with a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next several days.
It could spark isolated showers on Thursday, October 8, and Friday, October 9, per the NWS. Outside of that, there will be little impact in South-Central Texas because the storm will likely remain off the coast. However, the agency says locals should continue to check weather sources for updates.
“If the system takes a north or northeastward trajectory shown in most models, the impacts to our area would be very minor,” the NWS wrote in its long-term forecast discussion. “Still, weak easterly flow off the Gulf brings a low (less than 25%) chance of a few isolated to scattered coastal showers over the Coastal Plains during the second half of the week.”
Alongside this feature, an area of lower air pressure will reach West Texas on Thursday. Forecasters say this atmospheric dip will increase moisture, spurring shower or storm chances between 15% and 30% Thursday and Friday near the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau.
Currently, the NWS puts San Antonio’s rain chances at 20% on Thursday and Friday. The risk is lower in Austin and San Marcos.
Before the gray clouds roll in, folks can enjoy a few days of drier fall weather. Highs will be in the upper 70s to the low 90s, and nightly lows will drop into the 60s through Thursday. Forecasters say a few rural locations in the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau could even see lows in the 50s for the first time since May.