A system brewing in the southwestern Gulf of America has a growing chance of developing into a tropical depression later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center
A Gulf system that could eventually threaten the northern Gulf Coast is becoming increasingly likely to develop, with forecasters now giving it an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next seven days.
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The National Hurricane Center said Monday afternoon that a trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions remain only marginally favorable, but gradual development is becoming more likely.
The system has already seen its odds of development climb sharply Monday. The NHC gave it a 60 percent chance of forming within 48 hours and an 80 percent chance within seven days, up from 30 percent and 70 percent, respectively, in its morning outlook.
The NHC now expects a tropical depression to form during the middle portion of the week.
The system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days before turning northward, a track that could eventually bring it toward the northern Gulf Coast.
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100PM CDT: Here are the Key Messages for Invest #92L located over the southwestern Gulf of America. For the latest updates on this disturbance visit https://t.co/GrztW6mQJV https://t.co/HT3SnJW3ly
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 5, 2026
It is still too early to determine exactly where the system could go or what impacts it could bring to Texas or other parts of the Gulf Coast, the NHC said. Residents and interests along the northern Gulf Coast should closely monitor the system as forecasts become more certain.
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The National Weather Service is raising the alarm over a developing Gulf system, with forecasters now giving a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of America a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days. The system had a 40 percent chance of developing within 48 hours Monday morning, but conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for gradual development. The disturbance is expected to drift east before turning north later this week, putting its eventual path along the Gulf Coast under close watch.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring the potential for a low-pressure system to form in the Gulf of Mexico, though it’s too soon to know whether it could affect Texas.
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Forecasters are monitoring a potential disturbance in the southern Gulf. On Sunday afternoon, the system had a near-zero chance of development within 48 hours and a 40 percent chance of cyclone formation over the next seven days, according to the NHC tropical weather outlook.
“An area of low pressure is likely to form around the middle of the week over the southwestern Gulf of America,” the NHC wrote. “Although environmental conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward.”
Eric Berger with Space City Weather said there doesn’t appear to be any concern for the Lone Star State.
“You may start to see some noise about tropical development in the Southern Gulf or Bay of Campeche next week, and some of our models are showing the potential for modest development there,” Berger wrote on Saturday. “We don’t have any real concerns about this in Texas, however, as any systems that develop there next week will most likely move to the northeast, away from the state.”
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South and Southeast Texas forecast
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In Southeast Texas, forecasters currently anticipate rain chances will ease across much of the region Monday through Wednesday before Gulf moisture returns and rain chances increase late in the week, according to the National Weather Service (NWS) Houston-Galveston office.
The extended weather outlook for Houston this week.
NWS Houston-Galveston
“A trough moves northward through the Gulf and hugs the coastline as moisture returns to the area around the middle of next week,” Houston forecasters wrote in their outlook. “Thus humidity, temperatures and rain chances all increase at the end of the work week into the next weekend.”
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Farther south, the NWS Corpus Christi office expects coastal rain chances to end by Tuesday, with low to moderate chances returning later in the week.