Astronomical and meteorological fall began in September, but seasonal fall temperatures are still a little ways away.
Tom Fox/Staff Photographer
Dallas-Fort Worth saw a taste of seasonal weather this week, with temperatures dropping into the 70s after a record-breaking summer.
But are the recent cooler temperatures here to stay? Here’s what to know.
Why has it been so hot in North Texas this year?
The region is still running several degrees warmer than normal for this time of year, and another stretch of above-normal temperatures is forecast for this week.
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“We had, obviously, just a pretty bad last half of the summer,” said Tom Bradshaw, chief meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Fort Worth office. “September essentially broke records in terms of how warm it was.”
September’s heat was due to a large upper-level ridge of high pressure that “set up shop,” Bradshaw said, over the southern U.S. for the last two months. Last week’s substantial storm systems brought heavy rain and cooler temperatures, breaking the pattern in Dallas-Fort Worth.
Related: Was September really as scorching as it felt in Dallas?
When will fall weather arrive in Dallas-Fort Worth?
Astronomical and meteorological fall began in September, but seasonal fall temperatures are still a little ways away.
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High temperatures for the next week are expected to range in the mid- to high-80s, but “feels like” temperatures could near and potentially enter the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to remain in the 60s throughout the week, with the coolest part of the day generally occurring in early morning hours.
Related: After record-breaking September heat, milder weather returns to North Texas
Bradshaw said there is a new ridge of high pressure building over D-FW, less strong than this summer’s, that will impact temperatures.
“Even though we’ve cooled off, it’s in a relative sense,” Bradshaw said. “We should be seeing high temperatures here in Dallas in the upper 70s by now.”
Generally, Bradshaw said temperatures in D-FW are about eight to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
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“Those temperatures are probably a little more reasonable, a little easier for folks to handle, [but] the fact of the matter is we still are running above normal here in the near term,” Bradshaw said.
The Climate Prediction Center forecast Dallas-Fort Worth will likely see above-normal temperatures until at least Oct. 20.
Climate Prediction Center
Hope for more seasonable temperatures is on the horizon, though, as Bradshaw said the weather service forecast the last half of October will see temperatures come closer to normal.
Dallas-Fort Worth may also see a small front sometime next week, possibly bringing high temperatures to seasonal levels, but Bradshaw said it will not be a “major cooldown.”
Sometime in late October and early November, Bradshaw said the weather service expects the region to transition into a pattern that makes it easier for systems to enter into the southern U.S., such as storms or cold fronts. This pattern change could result in more fronts rolling into the region, as well as low temperatures dipping into the 50s, which is generally a marker of the fall weather season.
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“If people are wanting cold weather, then this is step one,” Bradshaw said. “We’re starting to get there.”
Temperatures may also feel cooler than what the weather service predicts in more suburban or rural areas in D-FW, as temperatures are hotter closer to the city centers.
“Our climatological world is centered around DFW [International] Airport and the observation site right there,” Bradshaw said. “But in reality, we’re hundreds of square miles of real estate, and the weather can vary a lot from what’s going on at DFW Airport.”
Related: When will North Texas finally feel like fall? Here’s what to expect
What does a late fall season in North Texas mean for winter?
A warmer-than-normal fall doesn’t necessarily mean North Texas will have a warm winter, but cooler temperatures may start a bit later than previous years.
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The winter season generally begins in December, but Bradshaw said it’s too soon to tell what winter temperatures will look like.
According to the Climate Prediction Center’s three-month temperature outlook, Dallas-Fort Worth has equal chances of seeing above or below normal temperatures through December.
The Climate Prediction Center forecast D-FW has equal chances of seeing above or below normal temperatures through December.
Climate Prediction Center
The first freeze typically falls around Nov. 22, according to historical records from the weather service. However, Bradshaw said Dallas-Fort Worth will generally stay warmer than normal heading into late November, which means the first freeze will likely fall after that date.
Bradshaw said the region’s average freeze date has likely shifted later in recent years, as the Nov. 22 date was measured using data from 1990 to 2020.
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Related: Unseasonable warmth continues for D-FW in early January with highs approaching records
“The long-term averages, they’re getting warmer year to year,” Bradshaw said. “Our average freeze date these days is probably already several days after that.”
Bradshaw said it’s always possible to see a freeze before Nov. 22 due to a strong front, but trends over the last several years indicate low chances.