HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — A New York Times/Siena poll shows Democratic candidates leading in two major Texas races ahead of Election Day, but political experts say voters should view the results with caution.
The poll put Democratic candidate James Talarico up 6 points over Republican candidate Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa up 4 points over Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.
Experts told ABC13 the results are surprising and not in line with other polls currently out.
“Has Talarico 6 points up and it had Gina Hinojosa leading Greg Abbott, which is a little bit unusual; we’ve seen in a series of polls that she’s been breaking even,” Rice University political science professor Mark Jones said.
“James Talarico well ahead of Ken Paxton and Gina Hinojosa well ahead of Greg Abbott, that’s not what most polls are saying,” University of Houston political science lecturer Nancy Sims said.
Sims said most polling shows a closer governor’s race and a smaller lead for Talarico. She said what matters most is relying on credible independent sources that show cross tabs and have a small margin of error.
She said it is important to take all polling with a grain of salt.
“I always say take polls as a point of view, at that point in time,” Sims said. “Ken Paxton has put out new ads this week; are those going to change the way people feel about him?”
Sims said only time and new polling will tell.
Jones said it is important to look at more than one poll to get a better sense of how different results align with each other.
“You have access to multiple high-priority polls from independent groups, take the average of those polls, don’t look at any one poll in isolation, one poll is much more likely to be off than the group is as a whole,” Jones said.
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