AUSTIN, Texas — Voters in Texas are set to cast early ballots starting Monday, with high-profile races for governor and U.S. Senate drawing national attention.
The early voting window will open on Monday and run through Friday, Oct. 30. Rice University political science professor Mark Jones estimates that 60%-75% of all ballots across Texas will be cast during this period.
The Texas governor’s race features Republican incumbent Greg Abbott facing Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Abbott recently released a campaign ad claiming Hinojosa voted to raise property taxes and alleging she supports a state income tax, while he continues to campaign on cutting property taxes. Meanwhile, Hinojosa’s campaign announced she will appear at the governor’s mansion Thursday to request a debate; Abbott hasn’t publicly responded.
Jones said Abbot’s campaign is in a stronger position heading into this election but adds, “It’s a relatively small lead. It’s like a touchdown lead with about six or seven minutes left in the fourth quarter,” he said.
Jones added that Hinojosa would continue to lump Abbott, Paxton, Trump, and Republicans together, saying her message remains, “People should look past partisanship and vote for her because she represents change.”
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Polls currently show Abbott with a small lead of two to five points, according to Jones, who noted that turning out Republican voters remains critical for Abbott’s campaign.
The U.S. Senate race is also heating up as Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico.
Paxton attended a rally in Tyler with Vice President JD Vance Tuesday after missing Vance’s South Texas appearance two weeks ago. Paxton used his campaign’s YouTube channel to share a segment from the Sean Hannity radio show claiming Talarico has changed his position on a state income tax and calling him untrustworthy.
Talarico recently returned to campaigning after his team said he had the flu. Talarico appeared at the Austin City Limits festival and launched a new campaign ad criticizing Paxton’s record on data centers.
Jones said Paxton’s campaign is playing catch-up even after Talarico’s brief absence from the trail.
“The Paxton campaign is running from behind, and so they’re pulling out all the stops, and it doesn’t seem that they have one clear pathway to victory,” he said.
Discussing Talarico’s campaign, Jones said that while it’s not clear Talarico’s absence had a negative effect, it “Kept him from doing things that might have helped his campaign widen his narrow lead over Ken Paxton.”
Talarico is scheduled to participate in a CNN town hall on Wednesday.