AUSTIN, Texas — A new survey from the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs shows the majority of likely voters in Texas who identify themselves as independents plan to support statewide Democrats this November.
The 2026 Texas Votes report shows the Democratic candidate in every statewide race is leading among independent voters, a change, of course, from previous Texas Votes reports.
In the U.S. Senate race in Texas, 60% of independent likely voters surveyed said they plan to vote for Democrat James Talarico, while 32% said they plan to vote for Ken Paxton.
In the race for Texas Governor, 55% of independent likely voters surveyed said they plan to vote for Democrat Gina Hinojosa, while 36% said they plan to vote for Gov. Greg Abbott’s re-election.
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The results of the survey mark a major shift from previous Texas Votes reports in Oct. 2022 and Oct. 2024.
In the 2024 U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democrat Colin Allred, the survey found 48% of independent voters planned to support Cruz, while 42% planned to support Allred.
In the 2022 race for Texas Governor, the survey found 55% of independent voters planned to support Abbott, while 33% planned to support Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
Mark P. Jones, one of the report’s authors, said one of the driving factors for the shift is voters’ dissatisfaction with the direction of the country.
“Donald Trump’s unpopularity, the economy, which is viewed negatively by a majority of those independents–all of that wrapped up together–has caused a majority of independents to say, ‘I’m voting Democrat,’ this cycle. It’s opposition to Trump,” Jones said.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. Early voting is underway in Texas until Oct. 30.
“This is far and away the most competitive set of statewide elections that we’ve had this century,” Jones said.