AUSTIN, Texas — A new study from the Houston Advanced Research Center is warning that the rapid growth of data centers could erase much of Texas’ air-quality progress over the past two decades, depending largely on how those facilities are powered.
The study focuses on “criteria pollutants” and models multiple scenarios for how rising electricity demand from the data center industry could affect air pollution across the state, including Central Texas.
Carlos Gamarra, vice president of Energy, Air and Digital Solutions at the Houston Advanced Research Center and a co-author of the study, said the analysis found that if Texas continues with the current electricity mix, emissions could return to levels last seen decades ago.
“By projecting emissions by the current power grid mix, we saw that for multiple criteria pollutants, we will be going back to the emissions levels we had in the 2000s,” said Gamarra.
The study estimates nitrogen oxide emissions—which help form ground-level ozone, a key component of smog—could be 2 to 10 times higher if data center demand is met with on-site combustion rather than grid power paired with solar and wind.
The study notes that does not mean all Texas emissions would rise by 2 to 10 times, but it identifies the choice of power supply as a major factor in the air-quality impact.
Gamarra said emissions are expected to rise as the industry expands, though the scale of that increase depends on the technologies used to power facilities and the specifics of each project.
“It is clear, based on our analysis, that air pollutant emissions are going to go up, because of the development of the data center industry,” said Gamarra. “That means that the emissions will at least slightly go up, but there is also a chance that they will increase by two or three times what we have right now.”
He said regulators and lawmakers have a role in ensuring rules are followed and enforced, while companies and communities also influence outcomes through technology choices and oversight.
“The data center industry is going to continue growing,” he said. “We just need to find a way to develop it sustainably.”
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In Bastrop County, some residents say they are already feeling the effects of data center development.
Jay Mirabito, who lives in the Elm Ridge subdivision, said he is frustrated by pollution he attributes to construction of a data center campus by developer EdgeConneX.
“We’re experiencing a lot of noise pollution, a lot [of] like dust drifts and concrete drifts over our neighborhood,” Mirabito said.
Mirabito also noted impacts like a dip in property values over the past year, as a correlation to the neighboring centers being built.
“Our tax appraisals came back and nearly everybody’s lost value,” said Mirabito. “I lost about $70,000 in value on my lower middle-class income home.”
Last week, Bastrop County residents recently demanded the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality hold a meeting to discuss another company’s project permit. Pacifico Energy is planning a natural gas plant to power a data center near residents.
HARC forecasts that nitrogen oxide emissions from natural gas could increase by more than 141.5 percent between 2025 and 2031.
“We need to pay attention to the evolution of the data center industry and how that affects communities,” said Gamarra.
The TCEQ recently said it would halt permitting for data center developments to fall in line with a September order from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.
CBS Austin reported it reached out to three companies with data center development plans in Central Texas—Pacifico, EdgeConneX and Big Watt + Powerhouse.
Big Watt + Powerhouse was the only developer to respond at the time of this report, stating in part that its facility in Taylor will neutralize up to 90 percent or more of nitrogen oxide emissions. They also say their facility aligns with statewide standards established by Gov. Abbott.
Our facility was engineered from the ground up to align with statewide standards established by Governor Abbott. By operating our own power ‘behind-the-meter,’ we place zero operational demand on the public electrical grid, fulfilling the state’s goal to protect the grid and prevent rising utility costs for Texas families. And because we operate entirely off-grid, we never force local utilities to activate older, high-emission ‘peaker’ plants during times of high demand.Our facility will integrate advanced Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) technology, which will neutralize up to 90% or more of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Operating a highly reliable, on-site natural gas system also means we completely avoid the large arrays of diesel backup generators traditionally used by grid-tied facilities.
The HARC study maps out several different development paths for the state, ranging from unmitigated traditional generation to highly optimized, clean infrastructure scenarios. Gamarra said the goal is to limit the industry’s footprint as it expands.
“We want to help minimize the environmental impacts of this industry while it develops,” he said.
HARC has a policy playbook designed with what it believes is a roadmap for developers and lawmakers to follow when “managing data center growth.”