OXFORD, Miss. – No. 7 Ole Miss heads to Austin on Saturday night for one of the biggest games left on its schedule. The Rebels (5-1, 3-1 SEC) face No. 19 Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC) at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, with the game set for 6:30 p.m. CT on ABC.

On paper, it’s a matchup of strengths. Ole Miss brings one of the most efficient offenses in the country, while Texas leans on one of the nation’s best defenses and one of the toughest home environments in college football. Here are the numbers that could decide Saturday’s game, using Ole Miss’ and Texas’ official game notes.

0.83: Can Texas get to Trinidad Chambliss?

The Ole Miss offensive line has been one of the best in the country at keeping its quarterback clean. The Rebels have allowed just 0.83 sacks per game, which leads the SEC and ranks 10th in the FBS. Against Missouri, the line earned the highest grade of any FBS offensive line for the week from Pro Football Focus while paving the way for 257 rushing yards.

Texas has made a living getting after the quarterback. The Longhorns have 19 sacks in six games, and edge rusher Colin Simmons leads the FBS with 9.5 sacks and has 16 tackles for loss. But Simmons is listed as doubtful on Wednesday’s availability report, and fellow edge Richard Wesley is out. On the Ole Miss side, starting center Brycen Sanders and left tackle Terez Davis are both questionable, so the battle up front could look very different depending on who is available.

24-for-24: A perfect red zone offense

Ole Miss is one of just two teams in the country with a perfect red zone success rate. The Rebels have been inside the 20-yard line 24 times this season and have scored every time, with 21 touchdowns and three field goals.

Texas has been good, but not great, at keeping teams out of the end zone once they get close. The Longhorns rank tied for 57th nationally in red zone defense, allowing scores 81.3 percent of the time. If Ole Miss can keep cashing in when it gets inside the 20, it will be hard for Texas to keep pace.

19: Chambliss’ touchdown streak meets a stingy defense

Trinidad Chambliss has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 19 straight games, the second-longest streak in Ole Miss history and three games shy of Chad Kelly’s program record of 22. This season, Chambliss has completed 142 of 210 passes (67.6 percent) for 1,676 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, and he has run for six more scores. He leads all active FBS quarterbacks with 110 career touchdowns, 67 passing and 43 rushing.

That streak will face a real test. Texas has allowed just four passing touchdowns and four rushing touchdowns all season, and only 166.2 passing yards per game, which ranks 13th in the FBS.

272.5: The best defense Ole Miss has seen

Texas allows just 272.5 yards per game, 12th in the country, and 17.8 points per game. The Longhorns give up only 106.3 rushing yards per game, and they have allowed just 19 offensive plays of 15 yards or more all season, the fewest of any FBS team.

That sets up a classic strength-on-strength matchup. Ole Miss averages 444.5 yards per game, 37.5 points per game and 290.7 passing yards per game, which ranks 13th nationally. Deuce Alexander leads the Rebels with 35 catches for 523 yards and five touchdowns, and the Ole Miss run game has two backs averaging better than 5.5 yards per carry in Kewan Lacy (352 yards, five touchdowns) and Makhi Frazier (254 yards).

Pete Golding said Monday that Texas creates “a lot of pressure with four” and is “really sound on the back end.” Which unit wins that battle may decide the game.

39: Can the Ole Miss run defense do it again?

For most of the season, run defense was a concern for Ole Miss, which still ranks 90th nationally at 153.5 rushing yards allowed per game. But the last two weeks have told a different story. The Rebels held Vanderbilt to 103 rushing yards and then held Missouri to just 39 rushing yards on 26 carries. Missouri’s Jamal Roberts came into the game ranked No. 2 nationally in rushing yards and finished with 39 yards on 20 carries.

Texas’ run game has been inconsistent, averaging 135.0 yards per game, which ranks 102nd in the FBS. Hollywood Smothers (289 yards) and Raleek Brown (265 yards, five touchdowns) split the carries, and Smothers is questionable this week. Golding said the key is stopping the run on early downs so Texas can’t set up its play-action passing game.

11-1: Arch Manning at home

Arch Manning is 16-5 as a starter, including an 11-1 record at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. This season, he has completed 106 of 166 passes for 1,295 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions, with Cam Coleman (336 yards, six touchdowns) and Ryan Wingo (345 yards) as his top targets. Golding pushed back hard this week on the criticism of Manning, saying he “should be the top pick in the draft.”

Austin is a tough place to win. Texas is 22-2 at home since the start of the 2023 season and has won four straight home games against ranked opponents, which is tied for the second-longest active streak in the FBS. The only team with a longer active streak? Ole Miss, with six ranked home wins. The Rebels have also won 15 straight home games overall, the longest active home winning streak in the Power Four.

44.5: The hidden edge on special teams

Field position could matter in a game between two strong defenses, and that is where Ole Miss has a big advantage. The Rebels rank sixth in the FBS in net punting at 44.5 yards, while Texas ranks 118th at 37.04. Punter Oscar Bird is averaging 46.8 yards per punt with seven punts of 50-plus yards, and he sits atop the Ole Miss career chart in punting average.

The Rebels also have one of the best clutch kickers in college football in Lucas Carneiro, who is the program’s career leader in 50-yard field goals and has three career game-winning kicks of 45-plus yards in the final 15 seconds of regulation.

10: A homecoming for Texas Rebels

Ten Ole Miss players will be returning to their home state on Saturday: CB Jaylon Braxton (Frisco), WR Johntay Cook II (DeSoto), WR Dylan Davis (Frisco), RB Makhi Frazier (McKinney), WR Darrell Gill Jr. (Atascocita), S Gerald Lacy Jr. (Dallas), RB Kewan Lacy (Dallas), CB Victor Lincoln Jr. (Lancaster), CB Isreal Solomon (Dallas) and QB Rees Wise (Austin).

Lacy grew up a Texas fan and has 29 rushing touchdowns since the start of the 2025 season, the second-most by any FBS running back in that span. He is two touchdowns away from tying Brandon Bolden for second place on the Ole Miss career list. “It’s going to mean a lot, just coming back home,” Lacy said this week.

5: Another ranked test

Texas will be Ole Miss’ fifth ranked opponent of the season and its fourth in the last five weeks. The Rebels are the only team in the country with three wins over opponents ranked in the AP Top 25 at the time of the game: No. 24 Louisville, No. 7 LSU and No. 13 Missouri.

For Golding, it will be the eighth time in his first 10 games as a head coach that he has faced a ranked opponent. He is 5-2 in those games, and he is tied with Barry Switzer for the fewest games needed by a head coach to beat five ranked opponents.

The series history favors Texas, which leads 6-2 all-time (6-1 after Ole Miss’ 2013 win in Austin was vacated by NCAA ruling). Saturday will be the first meeting between the schools as SEC opponents.

Ole Miss vs. Texas stats comparison

Stat (2026)
Ole Miss
Texas

Record
5-1 (3-1 SEC)
4-2 (1-2 SEC)

AP ranking
No. 7
No. 19

Scoring offense
37.5 ppg
30.2 ppg

Total offense
444.5 ypg
361.3 ypg

Rushing offense
153.8 ypg
135.0 ypg

Passing offense
290.7 ypg
226.3 ypg

Scoring defense
23.8 ppg
17.8 ppg

Total defense
390.0 ypg
272.5 ypg

Rushing defense
153.5 ypg
106.3 ypg

Third-down conversion rate
47.9%
41.7%

Red zone offense
100%
91.3%

Net punting
44.5
37.04

Injury notes and how to watch

On Wednesday’s initial availability report, Ole Miss listed offensive linemen Terez Davis and Brycen Sanders as questionable, with safeties Edwin Joseph and MJ Preston out. Kewan Lacy, Patrick Kutas and Caleb Cunningham are probable. Texas listed Colin Simmons as doubtful and Hollywood Smothers and Kaliq Lockett as questionable. Read the full Wednesday Ole Miss vs. Texas injury report.

No. 7 Ole Miss visits No. 19 Texas at 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. The game will be televised on ABC, with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit on the call and Holly Rowe reporting from the sideline.

More Ole Miss vs. Texas: Game preview and kickoff info | Ole Miss depth chart vs. Texas | Golding on Arch Manning

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Evelyn Van Pelt

Evelyn has covered sports for over two decades, beginning her journalism career as a sports writer for a newspaper in Austin, Texas. She attended Texas A&M and majored in English. Evelyn’s love for Ole Miss began when her daughter Katie attended the university on a volleyball scholarship. Evelyn created the Rebel Walk in 2013 and has served as publisher and managing editor since its inception. Email Evie at: Evie@TheRebelWalk.com