NOAA’s winter outlook, released Oct. 15, forecasts above-normal precipitation across much of the central and southern Plains from December through February—the part of the country that includes Texas. 

The Climate Prediction Center gives an 80 percent chance of at least a strong El Niño continuing through January, February and March 2027, with the event expected to peak during the November-through-January period.

“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said.

For Houston, that could mean more opportunities for rain and storms during the winter months. Back in August, Texas A&M University atmospheric sciences professor John Nielsen-Gammon told Chron the odds of Texas having a wetter-than-normal cool season were about 90 percent from October through April, with a 10 to 15 percent chance of breaking its rainfall record.

But there’s a big caveat for anyone already preparing for a miserable winter: NOAA is not predicting that Houston will be unusually cold.

The agency’s latest temperature outlook gives the Southwest and parts of the southern Plains equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal seasonal temperatures. The stronger signal is precipitation.

And more rain doesn’t automatically mean more snow or ice in Houston. Seasonal outlooks aren’t precise enough to predict individual winter storms, and NOAA specifically notes that seasonal snowfall totals generally can’t be forecast more than about a week in advance.

There is, however, another potential consequence for Texas: drought.

NOAA’s latest drought outlook forecasts drought conditions to improve or end across the Southern Great Plains by the end of January. More precipitation could help replenish dry soils and water supplies, although Graham warned that heavy rain falling on dry ground can also increase the risk of flash flooding.

“While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides,” Graham said.

NOAA’s next three-month outlook is scheduled for Nov. 19.