This year, the early forecast hints at a warmer evening than normal, so a princess may be able to leave the sweater at home and a superhero may not need a jacket under the cape. But with Halloween more than a week away, rain remains a wild card — and the weather could still come with a few tricks of its own.
Current forecast model guidance puts Houston’s Halloween afternoon temperatures somewhere in the 70s or lower 80s, before easing back into the 60s during trick-or-treating hours. That would favor lighter costumes, although it’s too early to make firm plans around those numbers.
Individual model runs differ, with some showing a cooler afternoon than others. While a single model run represents one possible weather scenario, ensemble forecasts come from repeated models that use slightly different starting conditions to explore a broader range of possibilities. Their average results currently lean toward a warmer Halloween, although a cooler outcome remains possible.
That warmer lean is also reflected in the long-range outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which favors above-normal temperatures across the Houston area during Halloween week.
The Climate Prediction Center also favors above-normal precipitation during Halloween week, and some longer-range scenarios bring rain toward Southeast Texas late in the week. But the outlook does not pinpoint Oct. 31. Many scenarios keep Houston mostly dry, while others show the potential for heavier rainfall, so it’s too soon to know whether showers will reach the area during trick-or-treating hours.
For now, warmth is the better bet for costume planning. Rain is becoming a more realistic possibility late in the week, but its timing and hazards remain uncertain.