Segment Spotlight: Quick Hits From SportsGrid College Football Today
Ole Miss Backed Against Texas, With Points Expected From the Longhorns
The matchup between Ole Miss and Texas presents a clash between narrative and the eye test. Texas needs a win, is at home and enters a potential bounce-back spot, but Ole Miss has looked like the better team, is playing better football and appears to be moving in the right direction. With Ole Miss getting 3.5 points, the preferred play is Ole Miss plus the points, with confidence that the Rebels can win outright in Austin.
Texas has struggled offensively in SEC play, averaging 305 yards and 22 points per game across three conference games. In non-conference play, those numbers were 420 yards and 38 points per game. The Longhorns have gone three-and-out on an SEC-high 34% of their possessions and have converted only 22% of their third downs.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, is averaging 37.5 points and more than 450 yards per game. In the two games since losing at Florida, the Rebels have scored 83 points while averaging 450 yards. They followed that Florida loss by dominating Vanderbilt in Nashville and then delivered another strong performance against Missouri.
The argument for Ole Miss also rests on trust in Trinidad Chambliss over Arch Manning at this point. Ole Miss has played very little bad football this season, with its roughest stretch coming from the second quarter through the third quarter at Florida. The Rebels still rallied late in that game as Florida struggled to stop Chambliss.
Texas is 6-13-1 against the spread in conference games since joining the SEC. Whether the issue is Sark, Manning or previously Quinn Ewers, the Longhorns have not consistently performed well in the conference. With the 3.5-point line beginning to disappear in some places, the recommendation is to take Ole Miss plus 3.5 while it remains available.
There is also interest in the Texas team total over 27.5 points. While a first-half team total of 13.5 was considered, its price of about -140 made the full-game number more appealing. If Texas wins, it likely needs to reach at least 28 points. Even in a loss, the Longhorns could still get there, particularly if they score late.
The status of the Texas defense without Simmons is a major unknown. His absence could be significant enough to affect the point spread and strengthens the case for Ole Miss. At the same time, the Ole Miss defense appears to be the weakest of the four main units in this matchup, giving Sark and Arch an opportunity to produce offensively.
That optimism comes with some risk. Florida entered last week with a struggling pass defense, yet Arch and the Texas offense were unable to take advantage. If Texas has not made the necessary adjustments, the team total could be in trouble. Still, Ole Miss could control the game while allowing Texas enough late scoring to push the Longhorns beyond 27.5 points.