Across Southeast Texas, rainfall has not been evenly distributed throughout the year. Of the 36.59 inches of rain Houston has recorded so far in 2026, more than 60% of that rainfall fell during the three-month period from April through June, courtesy of ample Gulf moisture and an active upper-level weather pattern.
Since then, however, the region has experienced historically dry conditions. Since July 15, Houston has recorded just 3.89 inches of rain, about 25% of the city’s typical rainfall for that period. It’s the second-driest stretch Houston has experienced during that timeframe in the past 100 years.
The last few weeks have been particularly dry, with only 0.03 inch of rainfall since Oct. 3. That said, a few showers may become possible this week, as Gulf moisture increases across Southeast Texas. Here’s what you can expect.
A pleasant morning is expected across Southeast Texas, although temperatures will be several degrees warmer than the past few days. Houston will likely sit in the low to mid-60s at 8 a.m. Sunday, rising steadily into the mid-70s by 11 a.m.
More clouds are also expected to move into the region throughout the day, with skies becoming mostly cloudy by the mid-afternoon. The clouds will keep high temperatures from rising too quickly, likely topping out between 81 and 83 degrees. Winds will be light, coming in from the east at around 10 mph.
Even though plenty of cloud-cover is expected, the air will stay relatively dry. While an isolated shower or a few sprinkles are possible, most of the region will stay completely dry.
Conditions are going to stay rather consistent on Monday and Tuesday. Houston temperatures will start in the mid-60s each day with afternoon highs expected to reach the low 80s – a few degrees above-average for late October. Humidity levels will increase, but rain chances will stay slim during this time.
A few scattered showers will become more likely by the second half of the week, especially along and south of Interstate 10. However, widespread heavy rain is not expected. Houston will have about a 20% chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday, rising to around a 30% chance of rain Friday as Pacific moisture increases across the Lone Star State.
A few showers may also stay possible for Halloween on Saturday. Don’t cancel any of your plans, though, as overall chances will likely stay slim.
This week’s rainfall totals are expected to stay relatively light. According to the National Blend of Models, only 0.1 to 0.4 inch of rainfall is projected across Southeast Texas, with higher totals likely across parts of Central and North Texas.
While rainfall totals this week will likely be modest, an active weather pattern could pave the way for better rain chances during the first week of November. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook, Texas is favored to see above-average rainfall during the week of Nov. 1-7.