Mercedes-AMG Petronas driver Kimi Antonelli waves to fans in the amphitheater ahead of the Formula 1 United States Grand Prix sprint race at Circuit of the Americas on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025 in Austin.
Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman
Championships are never won in theory, but that’s exactly the kind of calculation Formula 1 fans are making on the heels of a certain kind of history being made Sunday ahead of the U.S. Grand Prix at Circuit of The Americas.
Few would have thought it ahead of the season, but 20-year-old Italian Andrea “Kimi” Antonelli, the second-year prodigy who’s leading the grid for Mercedes, is on the verge of becoming the youngest winner ever of the drivers’ championship by a full three years.
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Whether he stands in the winner’s circle in Austin or not is beside the point.
With five races left, Antonelli — who has won eight races this year across 18 Grand Prix contests — is almost certain to accomplish the feat. He’s leading the F1 standings with 340 points, a full 102 points ahead of his teammate, George Russell, and a legendary name in third.
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Mercedes’ Italian driver Kimi Antonelli (L) and Ferrari’s British driver Lewis Hamilton depart a press conference ahead of the United States Formula One Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, on October 22, 2026. The United States Grand Prix will take place on Sunday, October 25. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images)
ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images
That would be Lewis Hamilton, the winner of seven driver championships and the man who Antonelli replaced in the driver’s seat at Mercedes at the age of 18. At the end of the 2024 season, the 41-year-old British native activated the release clause in his Mercedes contract and left for Ferrari.
Mercedes made a gamble on Antonelli, the Italian teenager who was barely a few races into his Formula 2 test period.
Antonelli shows maturity, perspective on F1 circuit
Now nearly two years later, the stakes couldn’t be higher for everyone involved. Antonelli is on pace to become the first Italian since Alberto Ascari in 1953 to earn top honors in Formula 1. Races in Mexico, Brazil, Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi await to finish out the season.
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“It definitely is crazy if you think about it,” Antonelli said Thursday at COTA, “but that’s why I won’t think about it.”
McLaren’s British driver Lando Norris walks in the paddock ahead of the United States Formula One Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, on October 22, 2026. The United States Grand Prix will take place on Sunday, October 25. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images)
ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images
Red Bull driver Max Verstappen at the Circuit of The Americas in Austin, Texas ahead of the United States Grand Prix on Sunday. Picture date: Thursday October 22, 2026. (Photo by Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images)
Bradley Collyer – PA Images/PA Images via Getty Images
AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Charles Leclerc of Monaco and Ferrari signs caps for fans in pit lane during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 22, 2026 in Austin, United States. (Photo by Kym Illman/Getty Images)
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Liam Lawson of New Zealand and Visa Cash App Racing Bulls arrives in the Paddock during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images)
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Cameron Brink wears a cowboy hat as she poses for a photo in the Paddock during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Mark Sutton – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)
Mark Sutton – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images
AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Charles Leclerc of Monaco and Ferrari signs caps for fans in pit lane during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 22, 2026 in Austin, United States. (Photo by Kym Illman/Getty Images)
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: A fan wears an F1 themed hat in pit lane during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 22, 2026 in Austin, United States. (Photo by Kym Illman/Getty Images)
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AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Fans of George Russell of Great Britain and Mercedes AMG Petronas gather in pit lane holding signs during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 22, 2026 in Austin, United States. (Photo by Kym Illman/Getty Images)
Kym Illman/Getty Images
AUSTIN, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Fans of George Russell of Great Britain and Mercedes AMG Petronas gather in pit lane holding signs during previews ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of United States at Circuit of The Americas on October 22, 2026 in Austin, United States. (Photo by Kym Illman/Getty Images)
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Of course, the pressure of Formula 1 will lay its heavy hand on the remaining races. Antonelli opened free practice 1 on Friday fifth before narrowing the gap later in the day to second, trailing only Charles Leclerc, who earned the No. 1 spot across both practice runs. The Mercedes driver — who’s aided by race engineer Peter Bonnington — will need a couple of drops in fortune for the history-making championship to happen (including his teammate, Russell, finishing worse than eighth), but few are worrying about that.
When/where: 1 p.m. Sunday at Circuit of the Americas.
TV: Apple TV.
“It’s always the same mindset I’ve had all year: one race at a time,” Antonelli said. “Just try to do the best I can every race weekend, and then we’ll see. But, of course, if I do things well, then the result will come.”
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Italy’s Andrea Antonelli is closing in on F1 history
By Friday’s sessions, thousands of fans in Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari apparel scattered across the COTA taking in the scene. They came to see the stars of the sport, from Antonelli to Hamilton to Red Bull vet Max Verstappen, who’s fourth in the standings. Last year’s world champion, Lando Norris, is sixth and on the outside looking in.
In 2026, continued regulations drove home shifts in Formula 1 cars as the Federation Internationale de l’Automobile passed regulations to incorporate more sustainable fuel blends and increase the engine’s electrical systems up to 50%.
Mercedes-AMG Petronas driver Kimi Antonelli crests the turn 9 hill during Formula 1 United States Grand Prix qualifying at Circuit of the Americas on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025 in Austin.
Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman
Heading into Sunday’s Grand Prix, added awareness has also been placed on the COTA course, which features tight turns and a few bumpy areas, according to drivers. Formula 1 reported Leclerc switched out his tires over the second practice session and had a better effort with a top lap of 1:36.136.
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Antonelli has adapted to the changes better than anyone.
He won five out of F1’s first six races and as of late is on another hot streak with two wins over his last five races. Hamilton, now 41 and racing his second season for Ferrari, has won just once this season — coincidentally, it was the only edition Antonelli did not finish.
Antonelli, who turned 20 in August and skipped Formula 3 because of his success rate as young driver, is no less aware of the history coming his way. Mercedes recruited him into their program in 2019 when he was just 12 years old. He’s among a new crop of young Formula 1 drivers — along with Arvid Lindblad, Oliver Beaman, Isack Hadjar and Gabriel Bortoleto — pushing the sport ahead.
Even Hamilton, who won a Formula 1 title at 22 in 2007 (and until now remains the youngest ever to win it), is aware the sport is changing. It’s an open question of how much longer the legend will continue racing, though his contract runs through 2027 with an option year in 2028.
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“I think he’s shown this year, and also last year but particularly this year, his talent and ability,” Hamilton said of Antonelli. “His calmness and his approach, he’s done an amazing job this year.”
If 2026 is the year of milestones, Antonelli is certainly in the driver’s seat. To be at the top of Formula 1 at 20 is a unique position only he knows.
Now it’s up to him to seal his fate.
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“To find myself in such a position is incredible,” Antonelli said. “But at the same time, I need to keep going, keep pushing, and it’s not over yet. So first, we’ll try to finish the job properly, and then we’ll enjoy the reset. But, for sure, it would be an incredible achievement, but there’s still a bit to go.”