President Trump and Democratic rising star James Talarico Tuesday were set to hold dueling rallies just three miles apart in the deep-red west Texas city of Lubbock as both parties vie for support in the state’s crucial U.S. Senate race.
Trump is hoping to rev up his right-wing MAGA base of loyal supporters to turn out in force to elect Republican Ken Paxton, who is fighting to hang onto the GOP-held seat in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in more than two decades.
But Talarico narrowly leads Paxton in most polls of their crucial Senate contest.
Trump and Paxton will address supporters at the 4,900-capacity Lubbock Civic Center after an afternoon stop in Corpus Christi.
Talarico’s campaign event will be held across town at the Fiesta Center, which holds up to 2,300 people. The Democrat’s campaign said it moved the speech from a smaller venue to accommodate enthusiastic supporters.
Trump won Lubbock County by a landslide 69%-29% margin in 2024, while winning statewide by 14%, although the city of Lubbock is somewhat less red-leaning.
Paxton needs to run up the score in west Texas while Talarico seeks to blunt his advantage in the region while racking up big margins in the state’s sprawling metro areas of Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio.
It’s anyone’s guess who is winning the battle for the early vote.
Democratic analysts say turnout is higher in deep-blue counties like Dallas and Houston’s Harris County, and blue precincts are drawing bigger crowds of voters than GOP ones.
Republicans scoff at those claims, noting that Trump-backing GOP voters increasingly prefer to vote in person on Election Day.
“It certainly seems a lot bluer than 2022 and 2024,” said Kyle Kondik, a non-partisan analyst with Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia. “And one of the things we’ll be watching is: can Republicans catch up.”
Democrats likely need to win at least four Republican-held Senate seats to retake control, including Texas. That once seemed like a long shot, but with Trump’s approval rating at historic lows, pundits now give them better than even odds of flipping the chamber.