In Texas, ‘everything is bigger, including politics’ 

By: Katherine Contreras Hernandez, Nicholas Corral, Jules Cox, Olivia Hau, Aden Max Juarez, Caitlin Roehmholdt, Loralei Rohrbach, Jose Trejo, Aino-Mari Tuuri, Gian Marco Velasquez

SOUTH TEXAS — In a state Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024, Democratic Rep. Al Green stepped up to a microphone and predicted Texas was “about to see a blue tsunami” this November. 

The 11-term congressman serving his final months in office was there to rev up a crowd in a Fort Bend County suburb of Houston for Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who is locked in a tight race for the U.S. Senate seat.

“If Texas goes blue, the USA will too,” Green said.

With early voting underway and outpacing the 2022 midterm elections, the question for candidates up and down the Texas ballot is whether a lousy economy, an unpopular president and demographic change is enough to make Green’s prediction a reality. Can the national environment deliver Democrats what at the start of this year would have seemed an improbable Senate victory? And an even bigger if: Could a Talarico win lift up Democratic House candidates in a year that Texas was supposed to preserve the majority for Republicans?

These are the questions reporters set out to answer last week in interviews with more than 200 people across 1,100 miles at multiple South Texas early voting sites and candidate events. 

What they found was not so simple. Texans are highly divided about the national parties, protective about their unique way of life, and, in many rural areas, still loyal to Trump. A common campaign sign, sprinkled among the candidate names at early voting sites, was “Keep Texas Red.”

For some voters, the idea of Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton winning the seat held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn is so distasteful that they will either stay home, leave the Senate race blank or vote for Talarico in protest.

Retired teacher Cheryl Clark, 64, went into Paxton’s campaign stop in Victoria last week as an undecided voter. She left the event ruling him out, and said she was particularly irritated by Paxton making a “tofu” joke to falsely suggest Talarico is vegetarian, something he called a “cry for help in Texas.”

“I’m trying to cut back on the meat … I like tofu, how does that even make sense,” Clark said in a followup interview.

President Donald Trump rallied on Tuesday in Corpus Christi and Lubbock, areas where the Republican House candidates are considered safe. 

At least one district drawn to help Republicans has turned into a race where the Democrat is in a better-than-expected position. Inside Elections rates the 15th District represented by Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz as a Toss-up. The energy on the ground in the district, which stretches 300 miles across rural South Texas, seems to favor Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, the Democratic nominee. 

Pulido spent the weekend with Talarico, gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinajosa, political rights activist Maria Teresa Kumar and actress Cristela Alonzo at a rally in the border city of Weslaco headlined by Los Tigres del Norte. 

Democratic candidate supporters sit across the street from an early voting site in Goliad, Texas. (USC Annenberg Media)

“We deserve a representative who will fight for us as hard as we fight for our families regardless of party,” Pulido said in a recent ad, which speaks to rising costs and shows the candidate in his signature cowboy hat speaking to voters in restaurants and grocery stores. 

Outside the 5,500-population town of Sinton, Ellie Harrington, a volunteer for Pulido’s campaign, is optimistic about his chances. Placing signs near the San Patricio County Fairgrounds Civic Center where early voting is taking place, Harrington thinks it will be a close race. “This is again where every single vote matters,” she said.

Pulido supporters set up a tent across the street from an early voting site in Goliad and said they would be there every day. They told reporters they do get some hecklers, but also lots of people coming by to tell them they are backing the Democrat.

Damien Martinez, 59, met Pulido a few months ago in Sinton. He was pleased that Pulido answered his questions on property taxes and that he “didn’t dodge the question like a typical politician.” A sign for Pulido stands in the window of Martinez’s tax preparation business.

“He himself has been a small business owner in the Valley, so he understands what it’s like to work on a fixed income and live within your means,” said Martinez.

The 15th is not the only Texas House race Democrats are hoping to overperform, wagering that Latino voters will be as influential in November as they were in 2024 when they turned toward Trump. 

Democrat Johnny Garcia, vying for the newly redrawn 35th District, a San Antonio-area seat that favors Republicans, spent his Saturday working the crowd at the 1902 Nightclub where Talarico rallied a boisterous crowd.

“They redrew this district to silence Latino and minority voters, thinking that we were just going to shut up and not come out and vote,” Garcia said in an interview. Now, voters on the ground are “simply fed up and tired,” he said.

“When you come to Texas, you better respect it,” Garcia said “And don’t mess with it.” Inside Elections rates his race against Republican Carlos De La Cruz, the brother of Monica De La Cruz, as Lean Republican. 

Across the state in Texas’ 23rd District that runs along the border and spans western San Antonio to El Paso, Republican Brandon Herrera seems pretty confident about his January plans.

Herrera fielded questions about veterans’ issues Saturday from a friendly audience in the back room of the Mission Ridge Range & Academy in western San Antonio. Inside Elections rates the 23rd as “Likely Republican.”

Herrera campaigns at a gun range in San Antonio on Oct. 24. (USC Annenberg Media)

Herrera said he’s been working with outgoing Texas Republican Rep. Chip Roy, who lost a primary race for attorney general, to line up staff for the congressional office he believes he will win. He also said he wants a coveted spot on the House Appropriations Committee — and despite that being a tough get for a would-be freshman lawmaker, the pledge has been a cornerstone of his campaign.

“We’re 22 percent of the state in one district. We need that appropriation seat here. We just don’t have a population that has a tax base to be able to fund all of those things. So that’s what I’ve got my eye on,” Herrera said. “I’m trying to make sure we bring that seat home, and I’m working hard behind the scenes.”

Former Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales, who resigned from the 23rd District in April at the start of an ethics investigation into an alleged affair, held a seat on the Appropriations Committee.

Herrera acknowledged it would be “hard to get” and said his other top choices would be the Veterans Affairs or Homeland Security committees, while the Judiciary Committee would be “a lot of fun. Not necessarily best for the district.”

In an interview, Herrera said improving services for rural veterans was his “No. 1 priority” and he would consider Appropriations and Veterans Affairs committee placements as a “massive win.”

“We’re trying to figure out ways to bring competent healthcare to veterans in rural areas that have been frankly forgotten about,” Herrera said. 

“Texas values are my values. I love the state, I love this area, and I want to see it preserved for future generations to come,” he added. “I had to step up. I had to make sure that this district was represented properly with somebody who is a competent operator, who does understand these issues, who knows how to solve them, knows the people in all these different counties.”

Voters were paying less attention to the House race, but had strong opinions on Herrera’s past remarks as a social media star known online as “The AK Guy.”

Frank Ruiz, 46, said Herrera’s comments about women and the right to vote are a dealbreaker as he headed inside to cast his vote at the University of Texas, San Antonio on Friday. He said he feels Herrera speaks “vulgarly of women.”

“That conflicts with my values as a Christian, as a dad, as a girl dad,” Ruiz said.

The Democratic nominee in the race, Katy Padilla Stout, spent her Friday night at a trunk-or-treat in Julia Newton Aue Elementary School’s parking lot on San Antonio’s northside. She dressed as Ursula from “The Little Mermaid,” handing out candy to children behind a booth promoting her campaign. 

Padilla Stout, an attorney and former public school teacher, faces long odds in a bright red district that reelected Gonzales with nearly 60 percent in 2024 and was redrawn to increase Republican strength.

However, Padilla Stout said her district “isn’t extreme” and that everyone wants the same things: a strong economy and safer schools.

“I don’t think that’s a red or a blue issue; I think that’s more of just the leadership they’re looking for,” she said. “We have a lot of people who are really excited and invested in this race in places that maybe typically have leaned more Republican.”

As for her opponent, Padilla Stout says that Herrera is “trying to distance himself from the online persona that he’s built, but he’s been online for over a decade, spewing the same racist and disgusting comments [and] that is exactly a reflection of who he is and what you’ll get if he’s elected.”

Padilla Stout campaigns in costume at a “trunk or treat” event in San Antonio on Oct. 23.

As a teacher herself whose child attends the same elementary school as the candidate’s, Kathleen Gonzalez, 45, aligns with Padilla Stout’s education platform on public schools.

“We need change in Texas,” Gonzalez said. “She represents that change.” 

For voters and parents like Ryan Campen, 46, whose son was participating in the trunk-or-treat, Texas’ school voucher program is an election issue. The Texas Education Freedom Account program provides public funds for families to pay for private school tuition, homeschooling supplies and other approved educational services.

He finds vouchers “to be a little restrictive” and leaving behind people in certain areas of the city. 

“That I find to be extremely frustrating,” said Campen, who plans to vote for Padilla Stout. “Education is something that belongs to everyone.” Inside Elections rates the race as Likely Republican. 

Tanya Lloyd, also a public school teacher, is running for Congress for a second time as the Democratic candidate in Texas’ 27th District after losing to Michael Cloud in 2024. 

Lloyd said she’s not surprised Texas is competitive right now, saying in an interview, “it’s a long time coming.” 

“We have such a diverse population in Texas … and they are finally seeing the effects of the Trump administration’s cuts,” she said. “It makes them see things in a different light.” 

While Lloyd faces long odds against Cloud in a deeply GOP district, she still says voters, including those from rural areas she has built her campaign around, are “finally waking up.” Inside Elections rates the race Solid Republican. 

Alex Alvarez, 24, of San Antonio, said he’s seen Texas slowly decline, from education to mental health services to other public institutions. 

“I’m hoping that with the other party being in power, that they’ll be able to allot more resources or allocate more resources to those in the future,” Alvarez said.

In Fort Bend with Green and Talarico, Roger Vazquez, 41, a mental health counselor, said he sees people as highly motivated about the election. 

Texans are passionate, and care about their people, Vazquez said, adding, “You know everything is bigger, including politics.” 

This story was reported from Texas by students from the University of Southern California Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism. Direct questions to christina.bellantoni@usc.edu