Barbie Cordier of Plano holds up a sign that reads “TEXAS Strong! TEAM ABBOTT!” as Gov. Greg Abbott speaks during a campaign event at Matt’s Rancho Martinez in Allen, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026. Republican Gov. Abbott, seeking a fourth term, faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa, an Austin state representative.
Juan Figueroa/The Dallas Morning News
Gov. Greg Abbott speaks during a campaign event at Matt’s Rancho Martinez in Allen, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026. Republican Gov. Abbott, seeking a fourth term, faces Democrat Gina Hinojosa, an Austin state representative.
Juan Figueroa/The Dallas Morning News
Gov. Greg Abbott warned a crowd of Republicans in Abilene this week that “far left, progressive Democrats” are turning out to the polls in big numbers in cities like Austin.
The governor, locked in a tight reelection battle against Gina Hinojosa, said he needed them to get to the polls — and get their friends and family there too.
“It’s going to take everybody in this room, everybody in Abilene, everybody across this entire region of the state of Texas, if we’re going to be able to win this race,” Abbott said.
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EARLY VOTE TRACKER: Search by county and see where turnout is highest
It was Abbott’s first of three stops Monday, which also included a rally with Attorney General Ken Paxton in Wichita Falls, as Republicans tear through deep-red parts of Texas in the final stretch of early voting, working to boost GOP turnout to offset strong showings so far in Democratic strongholds, like Harris, Dallas and Travis counties.
And they’re bringing in reinforcements, with President Donald Trump heading to Lubbock on Tuesday and Vice President JD Vance in Weatherford, a solid red suburb of Fort Worth, on Thursday.
That’s because turnout in these parts of the state will be, as Abbott told the crowd in Abilene, “absolutely essential” for Republicans to maintain their three-decade streak of dominance in statewide races.
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While turnout is up across the state, the smaller counties that Republicans tend to rely on have not kept pace with Texas’s blue population centers. Rural counties have seen a turnout of about 21% of registered voters, according to an analysis by Derek Ryan, a Republican consultant. The five largest counties in the state have so far outpaced that by 3 percentage points.
By Monday, the state had logged 115,499 more ballots cast by voters who have only previously voted in Democratic primaries than those who have only voted in Republican primaries. While that is an imperfect measure of party affiliation, since voters do not register with a party in Texas, it does suggest Democrats may be off to a stronger start.
Ryan said that advantage could be because it is easier to vote early in more urban and suburban areas than rural parts of the state. Polling has also found Democrats tend to vote earlier. About two-thirds of Democrats prefer to cast early ballots, according to surveys by the University of Texas at Austin. Republicans are more evenly split, with many waiting to vote on Election Day.
“It is possible that we may see Republicans make up some ground in the next few days,” Ryan wrote in his analysis.
READ MORE: Paxton turns to Abbott, Cruz for help as tight Texas Senate race enters final days
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Texas Republicans are pushing to make sure that happens.
“Texas Republicans, you can’t win from the sidelines,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said in a video he posted on X over the weekend, urging voters to “get in the game, vote Republican today — and bring a friend or two.”
The counties where the GOP is pushing hardest have seen higher turnout compared to the last midterm, in 2022, but lower than in 2018, when Democrats came the closest in decades at nabbing a statewide seat.
By Monday, 48,416 votes had been cast in Lubbock County, where Trump will be Tuesday. That’s about 23.7% turnout — up from about 18% during the same stretch in the 2022 midterms, but about 3 percentage points behind where it was at the same point in 2018.
In Parker County, where Vance will be Thursday, about 26% of registered voters had cast ballots by Monday. That’s about 2 percentage points behind the same point in 2018.
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In Taylor County, where Abbott made his Abilene stop, about 21% of registered voters had made it to the polls, about 1 percentage point behind 2018.
The state’s big, blue counties, meanwhile, have kept pace with that 2018 high-water mark.
In Harris County, for example, about 21% of voters had cast ballots by Monday. That’s about where the turnout percentage was in 2018 — but it also accounts for about 73,000 more votes than that year, given population growth.
Dallas and Travis counties have also seen voters turn out at about the same rate as 2018, but in each case that amounts to tens of thousands more votes than it was eight years ago.
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